2022 Election Prediction Contest

[The Great Zo]

Grab your crystal balls, crosstabs, #DIV/0! excel models, and whatever else you've got. The Boltprospects Election Prediction Contest has returned for 2022.

RULES:

• You'll be making predictions in the contests for US House, US Senate, and key Governor races (by state). For the US House, it will be a simple numeric prediction of your expected change in D-held seats. For the US Senate and for Governor, you'll be predicting a winner in each state that is currently ranked toss-up, lean, or likely by the UVA Center for Politics forecast.
• Some states have weird run-off rules, such as Georgia. You'll be predicting who wins the popular vote in the main round of the election.
• In order to avoid any risk of ballot fraud, election interference, USPS delays, Russian hacks, or boat parades, all entries should be submitted by 11:59 PM EST on Monday, November 7.

PRIZE:
As we did in 2020, you'll be fighting for the coveted Kazakhstan Union of Journalists' Political Pundit's Trophy. Donnie D was the winner in 2020. Do you have what it takes to defeat the incumbent?


(commissioner's note: the trophy is not real, but the pride you'll receive is)

THE BALLOT:

US HOUSE

• Currently 220D-212R with 3 vacancies.
• Predict the change in the number of democratic house seats -- i.e. if you think the Ds will gain five seats (225) say D+5, and if you think the Ds will lose three seats (217) say D-3.

US SENATE

• AZ: Masters (R) vs. Kelly (D) (lean D)
• CO: O'Dea (R) vs. Bennett (D) (likely D)
• FL: Rubio (R) vs. Demings (D) (likely R)
• GA: Walker (R) vs. Warnock (D) (toss-up)
• IA: Grassley (R) vs. Franken (D) (likely R)
• NV: Laxalt (R) vs. Cortez Masto (D) (toss-up)
• NH: Bolduc (R) vs. Hassan (D) (lean D)
• NC: Budd (R) vs. Beasley (D) (lean R)
• OH: Vance (R) vs. Ryan (D) (lean R)
• PA: Oz (R) vs. Fetterman (D) (lean D)
• UT: Lee (R) vs. McMullin (I) (likely R)
• WA: Smiley (R) vs. Murray (D) (likely D)
• WI: Johnson (R) vs. Barnes (D) (lean R)

GOVERNOR

• AK: Dunleavy (R) vs. Gara (D) vs. Walker (I) (likely R)
• AZ: Lake (R) vs. Hobbs (D) (toss-up)
• CT: Stefanowski (R) vs. Lamont (D) (likely D)
• GA: Kemp (R) vs. Abrams (D) (likely R)
• KS: Schmidt (R) vs. Kelly (D) (toss-up)
• ME: LePage (R) vs. Mills (D) (lean D)
• MI: Dixon (R) vs. Whitmer (D) (likely D)
• MN: Jensen (R) vs. Walz (D) (likely D)
• NV: Lombardo (R) vs. Sisolak (D) (toss-up)
• NM: Ronchetti (R) vs. Lujan Grisham (D) (lean D)
• NY: Zeldin (R) vs. Hochul (D) (likely D)
• OK: Stitt (R) vs. Hofmeister (D) vs. Yen (I) (likely R)
• OR: Drazan (R) vs. Kotek (D) vs. Johnson (I) (toss-up)
• PA: Mastriano (R) vs. Shapiro (D) (likely D)
• RI: Kalus (R) vs. McKee (D) (likely D)
• TX: Abbott (R) vs. O'Rourke (D) (likely R)
• WI: Michels (R) vs. Evers (D) (toss-up)

SCORING:

• House: 40 points if exactly right, 35 points if off by one, and minus 3 points for each seat off beyond that.
• Senate: 3 points per correct prediction.
• Governor: 2 points per correct prediction.
• Double score for toss-ups. Triple score if you go against a likely and get it right.
• Tiebreakers will be, in order: score for US Senate, score for Governors, score for US House, time of ballot submission.

I don't expect that this contest will be scored any time soon. Some election results won't be known for weeks, if not longer.

Have fun, and may the best spreadsheet win!

[Bolthed]

Too depressing

[the_narrow_way]

I'm hoping that the influx of younger voters is not being represented in the polls. Certainly most kids these days are basically unreachable if they don't know your number or email; how would you poll them? There was some evidence of that in the special vote in Kansas about abortion rights.

[Bolthed]

I dunno. It’s hard to be optimistic after talking to some millennials. The vast majority don’t even know that they are the largest generation, even larger than the boomers. I say that to all of them, and most of the time instead of feeling empowered they express apathy or just complain more about the shit hand they’ve been dealt.

[pete]

THE BALLOT:

US HOUSE

D-10. Republicans will hold a 225-210 majority. Not a red wave, and in fact entirely possible D's reclaim the chamber in 2024.

US SENATE

D+1 Democrats will hold a 51-49 majority. So, at least they'll be able to get more judges confirmed and maybe Thomas and Alito will get lost so they can help make the SCOTUS a wee bit less crooked.)

• AZ: Masters (R) vs. Kelly (D) Kelly
• CO: O'Dea (R) vs. Bennett (D) Bennett
• FL: Rubio (R) vs. Demings (D) Rubio (The early vote from Miami-Dade indicates Florida is going to be a slaughter)
• GA: Walker (R) vs. Warnock (D) Warnock (The question is whether this goes to another runoff, but Warnock eventually gets back in. Walker's a national embarrassment for the state.)
• IA: Grassley (R) vs. Franken (D) Grassley (McConnell spent some money here, so the margin will be tighter than the partisan lean of the state.)
• NV: Laxalt (R) vs. Cortez Masto (D) Cortez Masto (Harry Reid's turnout machine saves her by an eyelash.)
• NH: Bolduc (R) vs. Hassan (D) Hassan
• NC: Budd (R) vs. Beasley (D) Budd (Early vote got better after a bad first week, but not enough for me to think Beasley actually pulls the upset.)
• OH: Vance (R) vs. Ryan (D) Vance (Partisan lean of the state pulls Vance over the top by a few points. He's a terrible candidate/human being though.)
• PA: Oz (R) vs. Fetterman (D) Fetterman
• UT: Lee (R) vs. McMullin (I) Lee
• WA: Smiley (R) vs. Murray (D) Murray
• WI: Johnson (R) vs. Barnes (D) Johnson (If there's an upset it'll be here. Marquette's final poll showed movement back to Barnes and it's within the MOE. I think he holds the mo' going into E-day.)

GOVERNOR

Florida so uncompetitive Zo isn't even gonna list it (DeSantis will, sadly, win.)

• AK: Dunleavy (R) vs. Gara (D) vs. Walker (I) Dunleavy
• AZ: Lake (R) vs. Hobbs (D) Hobbs (Please. Lake is already preening to be the next Insurrectionist Barbie for the right.)
• CT: Stefanowski (R) vs. Lamont (D) Lamont
• GA: Kemp (R) vs. Abrams (D) Kemp (It'll be closer than the polls, I think, but not close enough to force a runoff.)
• KS: Schmidt (R) vs. Kelly (D) Kelly (She's been quietly running ahead all cycle. I think she does it again.)
• ME: LePage (R) vs. Mills (D) Mills
• MI: Dixon (R) vs. Whitmer (D) Whitmer
• MN: Jensen (R) vs. Walz (D) Walz
• NV: Lombardo (R) vs. Sisolak (D) Lombardo
• NM: Ronchetti (R) vs. Lujan Grisham (D) Lujan Grisham
• NY: Zeldin (R) vs. Hochul (D) Hochul
• OK: Stitt (R) vs. Hofmeister (D) vs. Yen (I) Stitt
• OR: Drazan (R) vs. Kotek (D) vs. Johnson (I) Kotek (Partisan lean of the state saves her.)
• PA: Mastriano (R) vs. Shapiro (D) Shapiro
• RI: Kalus (R) vs. McKee (D) McKee
• TX: Abbott (R) vs. O'Rourke (D) Abbott
• WI: Michels (R) vs. Evers (D) Evers (Seems to be reasonably well liked in the state and I think Wisconsin seems to like incumbents, which is part of what's helped Johnson slip the noose electorally.)

[Bolthed]

Saw that the next senate cycle appears disastrous for the Dems. Better get some shit passed or it’s curtains

[The Great Zo]

US HOUSE

• D-8

US SENATE

• AZ: Masters (R) vs. Kelly (D) (lean D) -- Kelly
• CO: O'Dea (R) vs. Bennett (D) (likely D) -- Bennett
• FL: Rubio (R) vs. Demings (D) (likely R) -- Rubio
• GA: Walker (R) vs. Warnock (D) (toss-up) -- Warnock
• IA: Grassley (R) vs. Franken (D) (likely R) -- Grassley
• NV: Laxalt (R) vs. Cortez Masto (D) (toss-up) -- Laxalt
• NH: Bolduc (R) vs. Hassan (D) (lean D) -- Hassan
• NC: Budd (R) vs. Beasley (D) (lean R) -- Budd
• OH: Vance (R) vs. Ryan (D) (lean R) -- Vance
• PA: Oz (R) vs. Fetterman (D) (lean D) -- Fetterman
• UT: Lee (R) vs. McMullin (I) (likely R) -- Lee
• WA: Smiley (R) vs. Murray (D) (likely D) -- Murray
• WI: Johnson (R) vs. Barnes (D) (lean R) -- Barnes

GOVERNOR

• AK: Dunleavy (R) vs. Gara (D) vs. Walker (I) (likely R) -- Dunleavy
• AZ: Lake (R) vs. Hobbs (D) (toss-up) -- Lake
• CT: Stefanowski (R) vs. Lamont (D) (likely D) -- Lamont
• GA: Kemp (R) vs. Abrams (D) (likely R) -- Kemp
• KS: Schmidt (R) vs. Kelly (D) (toss-up) -- Schmidt
• ME: LePage (R) vs. Mills (D) (lean D) -- Mills
• MI: Dixon (R) vs. Whitmer (D) (likely D) -- Whitmer
• MN: Jensen (R) vs. Walz (D) (likely D) -- Walz
• NV: Lombardo (R) vs. Sisolak (D) (toss-up) -- Lombardo
• NM: Ronchetti (R) vs. Lujan Grisham (D) (lean D) -- Lujan Grisham
• NY: Zeldin (R) vs. Hochul (D) (likely D) -- Hochul
• OK: Stitt (R) vs. Hofmeister (D) vs. Yen (I) (likely R) -- Stitt
• OR: Drazan (R) vs. Kotek (D) vs. Johnson (I) (toss-up) -- Drazan
• PA: Mastriano (R) vs. Shapiro (D) (likely D) -- Shapiro
• RI: Kalus (R) vs. McKee (D) (likely D) -- McKee
• TX: Abbott (R) vs. O'Rourke (D) (likely R) -- Abbott
• WI: Michels (R) vs. Evers (D) (toss-up) -- Evers

[bolts37205]

D -22

• AZ: Masters (R) vs. Kelly (D) (lean D) Kelly Kelly
• CO: O'Dea (R) vs. Bennett (D) (likely D) Bennett
• FL: Rubio (R) vs. Demings (D) (likely R) Rubio
• GA: Walker (R) vs. Warnock (D) (toss-up) Warnock
• IA: Grassley (R) vs. Franken (D) (likely R) Grassley
• NV: Laxalt (R) vs. Cortez Masto (D) (toss-up) Cortez-Martin
• NH: Bolduc (R) vs. Hassan (D) (lean D) Hassan
• NC: Budd (R) vs. Beasley (D) (lean R) Budd
• OH: Vance (R) vs. Ryan (D) (lean R) Ryan
• PA: Oz (R) vs. Fetterman (D) (lean D) Fett
• UT: Lee (R) vs. McMullin (I) (likely R) Lee
• WA: Smiley (R) vs. Murray (D) (likely D) Murray
• WI: Johnson (R) vs. Barnes (D) (lean R) Barnes

GOVERNOR

• AK: Dunleavy (R) vs. Gara (D) vs. Walker (I) (likely R) Dunleavy
• AZ: Lake (R) vs. Hobbs (D) (toss-up) Hobbs
• CT: Stefanowski (R) vs. Lamont (D) (likely D)
• GA: Kemp (R) vs. Abrams (D) (likely R) Kemp
• KS: Schmidt (R) vs. Kelly (D) (toss-up) Schmidt
• ME: LePage (R) vs. Mills (D) (lean D) Mills
• MI: Dixon (R) vs. Whitmer (D) (likely D) Whitmer
• MN: Jensen (R) vs. Walz (D) (likely D) Waltz
• NV: Lombardo (R) vs. Sisolak (D) (toss-up) Lombardo
• NM: Ronchetti (R) vs. Lujan Grisham (D) (lean D) Grisham
• NY: Zeldin (R) vs. Hochul (D) (likely D) Hochut
• OK: Stitt (R) vs. Hofmeister (D) vs. Yen (I) (likely R) Stitt
• OR: Drazan (R) vs. Kotek (D) vs. Johnson (I) (toss-up) Drazan
• PA: Mastriano (R) vs. Shapiro (D) (likely D) Shapiro
• RI: Kalus (R) vs. McKee (D) (likely D) McKrr
• TX: Abbott (R) vs. O'Rourke (D) (likely R) O'Rourke
• WI: Michels (R) vs. Evers (D) (toss-up) Micheks

if the Dems lose the Senate then I'm moving to Costa Rica, Biden alone again naturally is as sad as the Gilbert O'Sully song.

[jstreim]

House

• D-11 (209D-226R)

Senate

• AZ: Masters (R) vs. Kelly (D) - Kelly (D)
• CO: O'Dea (R) vs. Bennett (D) - Bennett (D)
• FL: Rubio (R) vs. Demings (D) - Rubio (R)
• GA: Walker (R) vs. Warnock (D) - Warnock (D)
• IA: Grassley (R) vs. Franken (D) - Grassley (R)
• NV: Laxalt (R) vs. Cortez Masto (D) - Cortez Masto (D)
• NH: Bolduc (R) vs. Hassan (D) - Hassan (D)
• NC: Budd (R) vs. Beasley (D) - Budd (R)
• OH: Vance (R) vs. Ryan (D) - Vance (R)
• PA: Oz (R) vs. Fetterman (D) - Fetterman (D)
• UT: Lee (R) vs. McMullin (I) - Lee (R)
• WA: Smiley (R) vs. Murray (D) - Murray (D)
• WI: Johnson (R) vs. Barnes (D) - Johnson (R)

Governor

• AK: Dunleavy (R) vs. Gara (D) vs. Walker (I) - Dunleavy (R)
• AZ: Lake (R) vs. Hobbs (D) - Lake (R)
• CT: Stefanowski (R) vs. Lamont (D) - Lamont (D)
• GA: Kemp (R) vs. Abrams (D) - Kemp (R)
• KS: Schmidt (R) vs. Kelly (D) - Schmidt (R)
• ME: LePage (R) vs. Mills (D) - Mills (D)
• MI: Dixon (R) vs. Whitmer (D) - Whitmer (D)
• MN: Jensen (R) vs. Walz (D) - Walz (D)
• NV: Lombardo (R) vs. Sisolak (D) - Sisolak (D)
• NM: Ronchetti (R) vs. Lujan Grisham (D) - Lujan Grisham (D)
• NY: Zeldin (R) vs. Hochul (D) - Hochul (D)
• OK: Stitt (R) vs. Hofmeister (D) vs. Yen (I) - Stitt (R)
• OR: Drazan (R) vs. Kotek (D) vs. Johnson (I) - Kotek (D)
• PA: Mastriano (R) vs. Shapiro (D) - Shapiro (D)
• RI: Kalus (R) vs. McKee (D) - McKee (D)
• TX: Abbott (R) vs. O'Rourke (D) - Abbott (R)
• WI: Michels (R) vs. Evers (D) - Michels (R)

[Bolthed]

Bloodbath in Floriduh

[Puckhead]

Bloodbath in Floriduh

Yup. But appears as though the deniers are going to lose in Nevada. I was very worried, but Clark county came thru as well as our work in Reno. I look forward to the all R crap signs across the street from me being taken down, in defeat.

[pete]

The only pick I feel shaky about the morning after is I don't think Hobbs can hold off Lake in AZ-Gov.

[The Great Zo]

All of the senate races in the contest have been called. Pete and jstreim came in with perfect predictions. The scores through Round One...

SENATE
45 - pete
45 - jstreim
39 - bolts37205
36 - The Great Zo

[Puckhead]

The only pick I feel shaky about the morning after is I don't think Hobbs can hold off Lake in AZ-Gov.

Based on what came in for Kelly in Maricopa, I think Hobbs pulls it out. If there is one defeat I root for in my bones, its bigmouth Kari Lake.

[pete]

Give me my damned trophy, Zo!