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2022 Election Prediction Contest

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  • 2022 Election Prediction Contest

    Grab your crystal balls, crosstabs, #DIV/0!​ excel models, and whatever else you've got. The Boltprospects Election Prediction Contest has returned for 2022.

    RULES:
    • You'll be making predictions in the contests for US House, US Senate, and key Governor races (by state). For the US House, it will be a simple numeric prediction of your expected change in D-held seats. For the US Senate and for Governor, you'll be predicting a winner in each state that is currently ranked toss-up, lean, or likely by the UVA Center for Politics forecast.
    • Some states have weird run-off rules, such as Georgia. You'll be predicting who wins the popular vote in the main round of the election.
    • In order to avoid any risk of ballot fraud, election interference, USPS delays, Russian hacks, or boat parades, all entries should be submitted by 11:59 PM EST on Monday, November 7.
    PRIZE:
    As we did in 2020, you'll be fighting for the coveted Kazakhstan Union of Journalists' Political Pundit's Trophy. Donnie D was the winner in 2020. Do you have what it takes to defeat the incumbent?​


    (commissioner's note: the trophy is not real, but the pride you'll receive is)

    THE BALLOT:

    US HOUSE
    • Currently 220D-212R with 3 vacancies.
    • Predict the change in the number of democratic house seats -- i.e. if you think the Ds will gain five seats (225) say D+5, and if you think the Ds will lose three seats (217) say D-3.
    US SENATE
    • AZ: Masters (R) vs. Kelly (D) (lean D)
    • CO: O'Dea (R) vs. Bennett (D) (likely D)
    • FL: Rubio (R) vs. Demings (D) (likely R)
    • GA: Walker (R) vs. Warnock (D) (toss-up)
    • IA: Grassley (R) vs. Franken (D) (likely R)
    • NV: Laxalt (R) vs. Cortez Masto (D) (toss-up​​)
    • NH: Bolduc (R) vs. Hassan (D) (lean D)
    • NC: Budd (R) vs. Beasley (D) (lean R)
    • OH: Vance (R) vs. Ryan (D) (lean R)
    • PA: Oz (R) vs. Fetterman (D) (lean D)
    • UT: Lee (R) vs. McMullin (I) (likely R)
    • WA: Smiley (R) vs. Murray (D) (likely D)
    • WI: Johnson (R) vs. Barnes (D) (lean R)
    GOVERNOR
    • AK: Dunleavy (R) vs. Gara (D) vs. Walker (I) (likely R)
    • AZ: Lake (R) vs. Hobbs (D) (toss-up)
    • CT: Stefanowski (R) vs. Lamont (D) (likely D)
    • GA: Kemp (R) vs. Abrams (D) (likely R)
    • KS: Schmidt (R) vs. Kelly (D) (toss-up)
    • ME: LePage (R) vs. Mills (D) (lean D)
    • MI: Dixon (R) vs. Whitmer (D) (likely D)
    • MN: Jensen (R) vs. Walz (D) (likely D)
    • NV: Lombardo (R) vs. Sisolak (D) (toss-up)
    • NM: Ronchetti (R) vs. Lujan Grisham (D) (lean D)
    • NY: Zeldin (R) vs. Hochul (D) (likely D)
    • OK: Stitt (R) vs. Hofmeister (D) vs. Yen (I) (likely R)
    • OR: Drazan (R) vs. Kotek (D) vs. Johnson (I) (toss-up)
    • PA: Mastriano (R) vs. Shapiro (D) (likely D)
    • RI: Kalus (R) vs. McKee (D) (likely D)
    • TX: Abbott (R) vs. O'Rourke (D) (likely R)
    • WI: Michels (R) vs. Evers (D) (toss-up)
    SCORING:
    • House: 40 points if exactly right, 35 points if off by one, and minus 3 points for each seat off beyond that.
    • Senate: 3 points per correct prediction.
    • Governor: 2 points per correct prediction.
    • Double score for toss-ups. Triple score if you go against a likely and get it right.
    • Tiebreakers will be, in order: score for US Senate, score for Governors, score for US House, time of ballot submission.
    I don't expect that this contest will be scored any time soon. Some election results won't be known for weeks, if not longer.

    Have fun, and may the best spreadsheet win!​
    Last edited by The Great Zo; 11-04-2022, 01:46 AM.

  • #2
    Too depressing
    “Could I had posted cite a site?” — WWW dot Trump makes you dumb dot RU

    Comment


    • #3
      I'm hoping that the influx of younger voters is not being represented in the polls. Certainly most kids these days are basically unreachable if they don't know your number or email; how would you poll them? There was some evidence of that in the special vote in Kansas about abortion rights.

      Comment


      • #4
        I dunno. It’s hard to be optimistic after talking to some millennials. The vast majority don’t even know that they are the largest generation, even larger than the boomers. I say that to all of them, and most of the time instead of feeling empowered they express apathy or just complain more about the shit hand they’ve been dealt.
        “Could I had posted cite a site?” — WWW dot Trump makes you dumb dot RU

        Comment


        • #5
          THE BALLOT:

          US HOUSE

          D-10. Republicans will hold a 225-210 majority. Not a red wave, and in fact entirely possible D's reclaim the chamber in 2024.

          US SENATE

          D+1 Democrats will hold a 51-49 majority. So, at least they'll be able to get more judges confirmed and maybe Thomas and Alito will get lost so they can help make the SCOTUS a wee bit less crooked.)
          • AZ: Masters (R) vs. Kelly (D) Kelly
          • CO: O'Dea (R) vs. Bennett (D) Bennett
          • FL: Rubio (R) vs. Demings (D) Rubio (The early vote from Miami-Dade indicates Florida is going to be a slaughter)
          • GA: Walker (R) vs. Warnock (D) Warnock (The question is whether this goes to another runoff, but Warnock eventually gets back in. Walker's a national embarrassment for the state.)
          • IA: Grassley (R) vs. Franken (D) Grassley (McConnell spent some money here, so the margin will be tighter than the partisan lean of the state.)
          • NV: Laxalt (R) vs. Cortez Masto (D) Cortez Masto (Harry Reid's turnout machine saves her by an eyelash.)
          • NH: Bolduc (R) vs. Hassan (D) Hassan
          • NC: Budd (R) vs. Beasley (D) Budd (Early vote got better after a bad first week, but not enough for me to think Beasley actually pulls the upset.)
          • OH: Vance (R) vs. Ryan (D) Vance (Partisan lean of the state pulls Vance over the top by a few points. He's a terrible candidate/human being though.)
          • PA: Oz (R) vs. Fetterman (D) Fetterman
          • UT: Lee (R) vs. McMullin (I) Lee
          • WA: Smiley (R) vs. Murray (D) Murray
          • WI: Johnson (R) vs. Barnes (D) Johnson (If there's an upset it'll be here. Marquette's final poll showed movement back to Barnes and it's within the MOE. I think he holds the mo' going into E-day.)
          GOVERNOR

          Florida so uncompetitive Zo isn't even gonna list it (DeSantis will, sadly, win.)
          • AK: Dunleavy (R) vs. Gara (D) vs. Walker (I) Dunleavy
          • AZ: Lake (R) vs. Hobbs (D) Hobbs (Please. Lake is already preening to be the next Insurrectionist Barbie for the right.)
          • CT: Stefanowski (R) vs. Lamont (D) Lamont
          • GA: Kemp (R) vs. Abrams (D) Kemp (It'll be closer than the polls, I think, but not close enough to force a runoff.)
          • KS: Schmidt (R) vs. Kelly (D) Kelly (She's been quietly running ahead all cycle. I think she does it again.)
          • ME: LePage (R) vs. Mills (D) Mills
          • MI: Dixon (R) vs. Whitmer (D) Whitmer
          • MN: Jensen (R) vs. Walz (D) Walz
          • NV: Lombardo (R) vs. Sisolak (D) Lombardo
          • NM: Ronchetti (R) vs. Lujan Grisham (D) Lujan Grisham
          • NY: Zeldin (R) vs. Hochul (D) Hochul
          • OK: Stitt (R) vs. Hofmeister (D) vs. Yen (I) Stitt
          • OR: Drazan (R) vs. Kotek (D) vs. Johnson (I) Kotek (Partisan lean of the state saves her.)
          • PA: Mastriano (R) vs. Shapiro (D) Shapiro
          • RI: Kalus (R) vs. McKee (D) McKee
          • TX: Abbott (R) vs. O'Rourke (D) Abbott
          • WI: Michels (R) vs. Evers (D) Evers (Seems to be reasonably well liked in the state and I think Wisconsin seems to like incumbents, which is part of what's helped Johnson slip the noose electorally.)
          S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-Stammermeter 2019-2020: 29

          Comment


          • #6
            Saw that the next senate cycle appears disastrous for the Dems. Better get some shit passed or it’s curtains
            “Could I had posted cite a site?” — WWW dot Trump makes you dumb dot RU

            Comment


            • #7
              US HOUSE
              • D-8
              US SENATE
              • AZ: Masters (R) vs. Kelly (D) (lean D) -- Kelly
              • CO: O'Dea (R) vs. Bennett (D) (likely D) -- Bennett
              • FL: Rubio (R) vs. Demings (D) (likely R) -- Rubio
              • GA: Walker (R) vs. Warnock (D) (toss-up) -- Warnock
              • IA: Grassley (R) vs. Franken (D) (likely R) -- Grassley
              • NV: Laxalt (R) vs. Cortez Masto (D) (toss-up​​) -- Laxalt
              • NH: Bolduc (R) vs. Hassan (D) (lean D) -- Hassan
              • NC: Budd (R) vs. Beasley (D) (lean R) -- Budd
              • OH: Vance (R) vs. Ryan (D) (lean R) -- Vance
              • PA: Oz (R) vs. Fetterman (D) (lean D) -- Fetterman
              • UT: Lee (R) vs. McMullin (I) (likely R) -- Lee
              • WA: Smiley (R) vs. Murray (D) (likely D) -- Murray
              • WI: Johnson (R) vs. Barnes (D) (lean R) -- Barnes
              GOVERNOR
              • AK: Dunleavy (R) vs. Gara (D) vs. Walker (I) (likely R) -- Dunleavy
              • AZ: Lake (R) vs. Hobbs (D) (toss-up) -- Lake
              • CT: Stefanowski (R) vs. Lamont (D) (likely D)​ -- Lamont
              • GA: Kemp (R) vs. Abrams (D) (likely R)​ -- Kemp
              • KS: Schmidt (R) vs. Kelly (D) (toss-up)​ -- Schmidt
              • ME: LePage (R) vs. Mills (D) (lean D)​ -- Mills
              • MI: Dixon (R) vs. Whitmer (D) (likely D)​ -- Whitmer
              • MN: Jensen (R) vs. Walz (D) (likely D)​ -- Walz
              • NV: Lombardo (R) vs. Sisolak (D) (toss-up)​ -- Lombardo
              • NM: Ronchetti (R) vs. Lujan Grisham (D) (lean D)​ -- Lujan Grisham
              • NY: Zeldin (R) vs. Hochul (D) (likely D)​ -- Hochul
              • OK: Stitt (R) vs. Hofmeister (D) vs. Yen (I) (likely R)​ -- Stitt
              • OR: Drazan (R) vs. Kotek (D) vs. Johnson (I) (toss-up)​ -- Drazan
              • PA: Mastriano (R) vs. Shapiro (D) (likely D)​ -- Shapiro
              • RI: Kalus (R) vs. McKee (D) (likely D)​ -- McKee
              • TX: Abbott (R) vs. O'Rourke (D) (likely R)​ -- Abbott
              • WI: Michels (R) vs. Evers (D) (toss-up)​ -- Evers

              Comment


              • #8
                D -22
                • AZ: Masters (R) vs. Kelly (D) (lean D) Kelly Kelly
                • CO: O'Dea (R) vs. Bennett (D) (likely D) Bennett
                • FL: Rubio (R) vs. Demings (D) (likely R) Rubio
                • GA: Walker (R) vs. Warnock (D) (toss-up) Warnock
                • IA: Grassley (R) vs. Franken (D) (likely R) Grassley
                • NV: Laxalt (R) vs. Cortez Masto (D) (toss-up​​) Cortez-Martin
                • NH: Bolduc (R) vs. Hassan (D) (lean D) Hassan
                • NC: Budd (R) vs. Beasley (D) (lean R) Budd
                • OH: Vance (R) vs. Ryan (D) (lean R) Ryan
                • PA: Oz (R) vs. Fetterman (D) (lean D) Fett
                • UT: Lee (R) vs. McMullin (I) (likely R) Lee
                • WA: Smiley (R) vs. Murray (D) (likely D) Murray
                • WI: Johnson (R) vs. Barnes (D) (lean R) Barnes
                GOVERNOR
                • AK: Dunleavy (R) vs. Gara (D) vs. Walker (I) (likely R) Dunleavy
                • AZ: Lake (R) vs. Hobbs (D) (toss-up) Hobbs
                • CT: Stefanowski (R) vs. Lamont (D) (likely D)
                • GA: Kemp (R) vs. Abrams (D) (likely R) Kemp
                • KS: Schmidt (R) vs. Kelly (D) (toss-up) Schmidt
                • ME: LePage (R) vs. Mills (D) (lean D) Mills
                • MI: Dixon (R) vs. Whitmer (D) (likely D) Whitmer
                • MN: Jensen (R) vs. Walz (D) (likely D) Waltz
                • NV: Lombardo (R) vs. Sisolak (D) (toss-up) Lombardo
                • NM: Ronchetti (R) vs. Lujan Grisham (D) (lean D) Grisham
                • NY: Zeldin (R) vs. Hochul (D) (likely D) Hochut
                • OK: Stitt (R) vs. Hofmeister (D) vs. Yen (I) (likely R) Stitt
                • OR: Drazan (R) vs. Kotek (D) vs. Johnson (I) (toss-up) Drazan
                • PA: Mastriano (R) vs. Shapiro (D) (likely D) Shapiro
                • RI: Kalus (R) vs. McKee (D) (likely D) McKrr
                • TX: Abbott (R) vs. O'Rourke (D) (likely R) O'Rourke
                • WI: Michels (R) vs. Evers (D) (toss-up) Micheks


                if the Dems lose the Senate then I'm moving to Costa Rica, Biden alone again naturally is as sad as the Gilbert O'Sully song.

                Comment


                • #9
                  House
                  • D-11 (209D-226R)
                  Senate
                  • AZ: Masters (R) vs. Kelly (D) - Kelly (D)
                  • CO: O'Dea (R) vs. Bennett (D) - Bennett (D)
                  • FL: Rubio (R) vs. Demings (D) - Rubio (R)
                  • GA: Walker (R) vs. Warnock (D) - Warnock (D)
                  • IA: Grassley (R) vs. Franken (D) - Grassley (R)
                  • NV: Laxalt (R) vs. Cortez Masto (D) - Cortez Masto (D)
                  • NH: Bolduc (R) vs. Hassan (D) - Hassan (D)
                  • NC: Budd (R) vs. Beasley (D) - Budd (R)
                  • OH: Vance (R) vs. Ryan (D) - Vance (R)
                  • PA: Oz (R) vs. Fetterman (D) - Fetterman (D)
                  • UT: Lee (R) vs. McMullin (I) - Lee (R)
                  • WA: Smiley (R) vs. Murray (D) - Murray (D)
                  • WI: Johnson (R) vs. Barnes (D) - Johnson (R)
                  Governor
                  • AK: Dunleavy (R) vs. Gara (D) vs. Walker (I) - Dunleavy (R)
                  • AZ: Lake (R) vs. Hobbs (D) - Lake (R)
                  • CT: Stefanowski (R) vs. Lamont (D) - Lamont (D)
                  • GA: Kemp (R) vs. Abrams (D) - Kemp (R)
                  • KS: Schmidt (R) vs. Kelly (D) - Schmidt (R)
                  • ME: LePage (R) vs. Mills (D) - Mills (D)
                  • MI: Dixon (R) vs. Whitmer (D) - Whitmer (D)
                  • MN: Jensen (R) vs. Walz (D) - Walz (D)
                  • NV: Lombardo (R) vs. Sisolak (D) - Sisolak (D)
                  • NM: Ronchetti (R) vs. Lujan Grisham (D) - Lujan Grisham (D)
                  • NY: Zeldin (R) vs. Hochul (D) - Hochul (D)
                  • OK: Stitt (R) vs. Hofmeister (D) vs. Yen (I) - Stitt (R)
                  • OR: Drazan (R) vs. Kotek (D) vs. Johnson (I) - Kotek (D)
                  • PA: Mastriano (R) vs. Shapiro (D) - Shapiro (D)
                  • RI: Kalus (R) vs. McKee (D) - McKee (D)
                  • TX: Abbott (R) vs. O'Rourke (D) - Abbott (R)
                  • WI: Michels (R) vs. Evers (D) - Michels (R)
                  Last edited by jstreim; 11-10-2022, 02:54 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Bloodbath in Floriduh
                    “Could I had posted cite a site?” — WWW dot Trump makes you dumb dot RU

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Bolthed View Post
                      Bloodbath in Floriduh
                      Yup. But appears as though the deniers are going to lose in Nevada. I was very worried, but Clark county came thru as well as our work in Reno. I look forward to the all R crap signs across the street from me being taken down, in defeat.
                      "Who are white supremacists?" Proud Boys. "Well I tell the Proud Boys to stand back, and stand by"

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        The only pick I feel shaky about the morning after is I don't think Hobbs can hold off Lake in AZ-Gov.
                        S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-Stammermeter 2019-2020: 29

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          All of the senate races in the contest have been called. Pete and jstreim came in with perfect predictions. The scores through Round One...

                          SENATE
                          45 - pete
                          45 - jstreim
                          39 - bolts37205
                          36 - The Great Zo

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by pete View Post
                            The only pick I feel shaky about the morning after is I don't think Hobbs can hold off Lake in AZ-Gov.
                            Based on what came in for Kelly in Maricopa, I think Hobbs pulls it out. If there is one defeat I root for in my bones, its bigmouth Kari Lake.
                            "Who are white supremacists?" Proud Boys. "Well I tell the Proud Boys to stand back, and stand by"

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Give me my damned trophy, Zo!
                              S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-Stammermeter 2019-2020: 29

                              Comment

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