News of the Day III

[Puckhead]

I would argue that you could also guard against mosquitoes by setting yourself on fire. If they have to gaslight people in order to properly convey their message, than there is a problem with the message. It was done on purpose. It should be very clear that the intent of the call to action is to also affirm all of those who want to eliminate the police.

Agree. As Frank Luntz has said, words matter. Some 70+% of the country agrees that the criminal justice system, and particularly law enforcement, need serious analysis and reforms. Even if there are only 18% that take that phrase to mean we get rid of police departments, that’s still a sizable percentage that we don’t need to unduly energize in order to make the point. I hate doling out softball talking points to faux news when its unnecessary.

[pete]

Our new Alaska poll, (client: Election Twitter), finds the Presidential race in the state is likely to be the closest it's been since the 60s. Donald Trump leads Joe Biden just 48-45:

Trump has a 46/49 approval rating in Alaska. Biden actually leads by double digits with independents, 52-39:

Alaska looks like another potentially competitive Senate race Republicans have to defend. Dan Sullivan has just a 35% approval rating, with 37% disapproving. 27% have no opinion about him either way:

Sullivan leads Al Gross 39-34.

But 72% of voters aren't familiar with Gross. And among those who are, he leads Sullivan 56-36. Suggests that if he has the resources to become better known, he can really make it a race:

In the House race Alyse Galvin slightly leads Don Young, 43-41. Young has a 35% approval rating, with 44% disapproving.

Galvin had the best personal numbers of the 8 people we tested in the poll, with a net +8 favorability rating:

A cautionary note on Galvin's edge though- the undecideds are Trump +26. A lot of Trump voters who don't like Young but those people often come home and it would push him back ahead if that happened:

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/1281227033687863296?s=20

Civiqs said Montana and Alaska were narrowing and that Alaska's Senate race could be competitive if the narrowing continued.

[Donnie D]

Supreme Court rules New York prosecutor can get Trump's tax returns

Lock him up.

[pete]

Supreme Court rules New York prosecutor can get Trump's tax returns

Lock him up.

"Like Don Henley said...

Somebody's going to emergency, somebody's going to jail.

In a New York minute."

-Alternate Universe Lefty Chris Berman (probably)

[ChaseSpace]

SCOTUS vacates the Mazars ruling and sends it back down to the 2nd circuit to be tried again.

Says Congressional subpoenas are enforceable but lower court didn't properly take separation of powers arguments?

[Hoek]

People are saying this delays it past the election unfortunately.

[nutznboltz]

This is why I don't trust these polls anymore showing Biden with a substantial lead.

https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.foxnews.com_politics_professor-2Ddoubles-2Ddown-2Don-2Dprediction-2Dmodel-2Dshowing-2Dtrump-2Dhaving-2D91-2Dpercent-2Dchance-2Dof-2Dwinning-2Delection-2Ddespite-2Dpolls.amp&d=DwIFAg&c=j-EkbjBYwkAB4f8ZbVn1Fw&r=c6bNroupjTcqWRHFEu8ImkcI_ks7LFTmc3bNQz_uHAc&m=KS7GeDsXuHIgyoOaaibYVNDHby3LTAnn3gmGoKVgLL4&s=wUsUD90-uyqBJBlLoCtL18DFkcAHesFq6BLVDbHnBg4&e=

The only caveat I would make to my statement, is that the past early election primaries did not have a pandemic, economic collapse and racial unrest occur afterwards. Trump's popularity is sinking dramatically since IA and NH, so this may be another outlier in the election process.

[Donnie D]

What I am getting from the commentary. Trump wins and loses.

The New York case is remanded back to the lower court. Basically, the SCOTUS said that being President does not make you immune. However they still have to justify the need for the Grand Jury to get the documents. That could take 2 years to resolve.

On the Congress case, that was also sent back to the lower court. The SCOTUS established the guidelines that the congress must meet to get to get the documents. Again that could take years to resolve.

Trumps appointees voted with the majority on both cases. Both decisions were 7-2 votes.

Trump wins because he delays the release of the information until after the election.

[pete]

This is why I don't trust these polls anymore showing Biden with a substantial lead.

https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.foxnews.com_politics_professor-2Ddoubles-2Ddown-2Don-2Dprediction-2Dmodel-2Dshowing-2Dtrump-2Dhaving-2D91-2Dpercent-2Dchance-2Dof-2Dwinning-2Delection-2Ddespite-2Dpolls.amp&d=DwIFAg&c=j-EkbjBYwkAB4f8ZbVn1Fw&r=c6bNroupjTcqWRHFEu8ImkcI_ks7LFTmc3bNQz_uHAc&m=KS7GeDsXuHIgyoOaaibYVNDHby3LTAnn3gmGoKVgLL4&s=wUsUD90-uyqBJBlLoCtL18DFkcAHesFq6BLVDbHnBg4&e=

The only caveat I would make to my statement, is that the past early election primaries did not have a pandemic, economic collapse and racial unrest occur afterwards. Trump's popularity is sinking dramatically since IA and NH, so this may be another outlier in the election process.

His model is like Sex Panther Cologne: it works 60% of the time every time. Not worried.

[BurnTHalO]

Florida positive rate jumps to almost 19%, and deaths were 120. Of note, not all those deaths were yesterday, but they make a statement that there are delays in reporting so don't read into short term trends on death. And the deaths still only represent permanent residents.

[Puckhead]

I have heard practically nothing about the fact that, even with mild or asymptomatic cases among young people, there is minor and sometimes major damage to the lungs and other organs. Mortality is obviously an important metric...but maybe, just maybe, if the 20-40 year olds see and hear that contracting Covid is a dice roll that can severely damage your insides, they might take this more seriously and act more responsibly. The fact that they can infect others doesn’t seem to be a factor in their decision making, but perhaps making it personal would have some impact.

[jdhebner]

I have heard practically nothing about the fact that, even with mild or asymptomatic cases among young people, there is minor and sometimes major damage to the lungs and other organs. Mortality is obviously an important metric...but maybe, just maybe, if the 20-40 year olds see and hear that contracting Covid is a dice roll that can severely damage your insides, they might take this more seriously and act more responsibly. The fact that they can infect others doesn’t seem to be a factor in their decision making, but perhaps making it personal would have some impact.

Most of the problematic folks I see are the folks of my generation (50+) who seem to be suffering from rectal cranial impaction. Of particular disgust are those who claim to be "Christian", I try to remind them about "the least of my people". I got through to a few, but it's disgusting right now.

[dannybolt]

Most of the problematic folks I see are the folks of my generation (50+) who seem to be suffering from rectal cranial impaction. Of particular disgust are those who claim to be "Christian", I try to remind them about "the least of my people". I got through to a few, but it's disgusting right now.

It sucks because of the collateral damage to people who are doing the right thing. If the virus picked off huge swaths of people who refuse to wear a mask, that would be one thing. Stupid gets what stupid does. The problem is it is affecting people doing the right thing because assholes can't be bothered to work in the best interest of their fellow citizens.

This is the dipshit Libertarian utopia we were all told would be so great. Turns out we govern to the lowest common denominator for a reason.

[Donnie D]

Michael Cohen is back in the slammer for violating the terms of his early release.

Pictures were taken of him eating at restaurants and I imagine this had something to do with it.

[Donnie D]

A COVID cure!

https://www.mysuncoast.com/2020/07/08/federal-agencies-hazmat-crews-respond-bradenton-church-selling-covid-miracle-solution/

Well, maybe not.