News of the Day III

[ChaseSpace]

You can even see it on this site. If you are clear GOP, or even say that you vote both sides of the aisle, you catch holy hell here and are called a racist and/or a facist and other classy things all just because you have a different view.

Only when you use those views to establish why you're voting for Trump and his associated bootlickers.

[dannybolt]

You can even see it on this site. If you are clear GOP, or even say that you vote both sides of the aisle, you catch holy hell here and are called a racist and/or a facist and other classy things all just because you have a different view.

Only when you use those views to establish why you're voting for Trump and his associated bootlickers.

This.

Hoek, RSchmitz, myself and others have made many, many arguments in favor of conservative positions over the years, and have never had the same issues that you describe. The people I mention have also pushed back on some of the farther left positions, and frankly some of the more ludicrous positions taken by said left and left leaning people. To your point, we haven't been called racists or fascists while doing so.

Do you think that is because we are in lockstep with the more vociferous members on the board, or is it because we are able to support our positions with logic and reason, and are using said arguments in support of right vs wrong argumentation, rather than relying on technicalities to support what are clearly morally bereft arguments?

Maybe claiming a "both sides" argumentation which is technically correct, but wildly inaccurate on degrees of guilt, or using dubious support, or outright proven false support gets called out for what it is? Maybe?

You'll note, in your last few posts critiquing what bad police are doing and providing additional inside color around how those issues are being handled, you haven't seen the same criticism that you normally face WW. That isn't because you are thinking the same as everyone else on the board. It is because you are providing useful nuanced information without relying on dumbass technical arguments that anyone who can determine right and wrong can immediately see through.

Groupthink is definitely a thing here. No question. However, you get stick not because people disagree with you, but because of the lack of rigor in your argumentation and your penchant for arguing technicalities over what are clear right v wrong situations, which invariably you are arguing in support of GOP policies that range from procedurally annoying to outright horrific.

[pete]

In case you haven’t paid close attention, Democrats outvoted Republicans 57% to 43% in the #GA07 primary.

https://twitter.com/ZacMcCrary/status/1273011282510307333?s=20

The reason Georgia is in play is that suburban Republican strongholds like Cobb and Gwinnett are showing significant erosion in Republican support (largely due to demographic changes in Gwinnett) and even exurban counties like Forsyth (historically the most racist county in Metro Atlanta) aren't sustaining the Republican margins they once did. There was a concern that the 2018 numbers we saw might've been a one-off because Stacey Abrams had special cache as a candidate, but the data from the recent primaries tracks with that erosion being a sustained, ongoing phenomenon.

[pete]

This.

Hoek, RSchmitz, myself and others have made many, many arguments in favor of conservative positions over the years, and have never had the same issues that you describe. The people I mention have also pushed back on some of the farther left positions, and frankly some of the more ludicrous positions taken by said left and left leaning people. To your point, we haven't been called racists or fascists while doing so.

Do you think that is because we are in lockstep with the more vociferous members on the board, or is it because we are able to support our positions with logic and reason, and are using said arguments in support of right vs wrong argumentation, rather than relying on technicalities to support what are clearly morally bereft arguments?

Maybe claiming a "both sides" argumentation which is technically correct, but wildly inaccurate on degrees of guilt, or using dubious support, or outright proven false support gets called out for what it is? Maybe?

You'll note, in your last few posts critiquing what bad police are doing and providing additional inside color around how those issues are being handled, you haven't seen the same criticism that you normally face WW. That isn't because you are thinking the same as everyone else on the board. It is because you are providing useful nuanced information without relying on dumbass technical arguments that anyone who can determine right and wrong can immediately see through.

Groupthink is definitely a thing here. No question. However, you get stick not because people disagree with you, but because of the lack of rigor in your argumentation and your penchant for arguing technicalities over what are clear right v wrong situations, which invariably you are arguing in support of GOP policies that range from procedurally annoying to outright horrific.

I don't believe I've called Waiver a racist or a fascist lately.

A doofus, certainly.

[Donnie D]

CNBC poll released Wednesday found Biden leading Trump in all six states for the first time (though only narrowly in some):*

Arizona: Biden 45%, Trump 44%
Florida: Biden 50%, Trump 43%
Michigan: Biden 47%, Trump 45%
North Carolina: Biden 47%, Trump 45%
Pennsylvania: Biden 49%, Trump 46%
Wisconsin: Biden 48%, Trump 44%

Note Michigan is only 2 points.

[Donnie D]

While I’ve never watched the show, it’s a big deal in Sarasota because it is filmed here. From the Herald Tribune:

Alex Kompothecras — star of the MTV reality show "Siesta Key" that's set in Sarasota County — has been cut by the cable channel due to alleged racist social media posts.

Kompothecras, who grew up with his parents on Siesta Key where much of the show has taken place at their beachfront mansion, was dismissed Tuesday. Racist comments and white supremacist posts allegedly made by Kompothecras recently resurfaced and have been circulating by fan accounts online.

For those of you who may be unaware, that’s 1-800-ask Gary’s kid and the mansion where it is filmed is his home. So I’m sure Gary is upset with his kid, right?

"Our family is very disappointed with MTV and we are exploring all our options," Gary Kompothecras said by phone Wednesday morning when asked to comment on his son's firing by MTV due to racist social media posts.

And you thought that Roz in his advertisements wasn’t a racist caricature.

[RSchmitz]

This.

Hoek, RSchmitz, myself and others have made many, many arguments in favor of conservative positions over the years, and have never had the same issues that you describe. The people I mention have also pushed back on some of the farther left positions, and frankly some of the more ludicrous positions taken by said left and left leaning people. To your point, we haven't been called racists or fascists while doing so.

Do you think that is because we are in lockstep with the more vociferous members on the board, or is it because we are able to support our positions with logic and reason, and are using said arguments in support of right vs wrong argumentation, rather than relying on technicalities to support what are clearly morally bereft arguments?

Maybe claiming a "both sides" argumentation which is technically correct, but wildly inaccurate on degrees of guilt, or using dubious support, or outright proven false support gets called out for what it is? Maybe?

You'll note, in your last few posts critiquing what bad police are doing and providing additional inside color around how those issues are being handled, you haven't seen the same criticism that you normally face WW. That isn't because you are thinking the same as everyone else on the board. It is because you are providing useful nuanced information without relying on dumbass technical arguments that anyone who can determine right and wrong can immediately see through.

Groupthink is definitely a thing here. No question. However, you get stick not because people disagree with you, but because of the lack of rigor in your argumentation and your penchant for arguing technicalities over what are clear right v wrong situations, which invariably you are arguing in support of GOP policies that range from procedurally annoying to outright horrific.

Good post. I hope WW reads this, I think he can offer good perspective and insight if he understands what you are saying.

[pete]

CNBC poll released Wednesday found Biden leading Trump in all six states for the first time (though only narrowly in some):*

Arizona: Biden 45%, Trump 44%
Florida: Biden 50%, Trump 43%
Michigan: Biden 47%, Trump 45%
North Carolina: Biden 47%, Trump 45%
Pennsylvania: Biden 49%, Trump 46%
Wisconsin: Biden 48%, Trump 44%

Note Michigan is only 2 points.

That's what passes for a good polling outcome for Trump these days. Losing everywhere, but not a bloodbath yet.

Caveat to the above numbers, Change Research is considered a C- pollster by 538. The polls from Michigan yesterday (TIPP and EPIC/MRA) have better pollster ratings (A/B and B+, respectively).

Since June 1 the only other pollster besides Change Research to have Michigan in single digits was PPP (Biden +6).

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/michigan/

Michigan is weird to poll and it has a lower proportion of college educated voters than, say, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, so it probably is a state where Trump won't get killed by double digits in the end. That said, there's no doubt in my mind that Biden has a healthy lead in Michigan right now, and that having a Democratic governor in Michigan means you won't see the kind of naked partisan vote suppression shenanigans you saw there and in Wisconsin and North Carolina in 2016.

Trump's campaign has had an ulcer over Michigan for a year now for a reason. They know they're in trouble there.

Put it another way, Michigan may be a safer state for Biden than Minnesota right now for all we know because there's been a paucity of polling out of Minnesota.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[Bolthed]

Good post. I hope WW reads this, I think he can offer good perspective and insight if he understands what you are saying.

But he just doesn’t. Did anyone notice the familiar pattern of thought with his “friends” in Michigan? I don’t trust these polls … so I’m going to respond to them with false information! Hahaha! Suck it, Libs!

Sounds a lot like, I don’t trust the government… So I am going to govern as incompetently as possible to prove that it’s not trustworthy. Hooray America!

[WaiverWire]

This.

Hoek, RSchmitz, myself and others have made many, many arguments in favor of conservative positions over the years, and have never had the same issues that you describe. The people I mention have also pushed back on some of the farther left positions, and frankly some of the more ludicrous positions taken by said left and left leaning people. To your point, we haven't been called racists or fascists while doing so.

Do you think that is because we are in lockstep with the more vociferous members on the board, or is it because we are able to support our positions with logic and reason, and are using said arguments in support of right vs wrong argumentation, rather than relying on technicalities to support what are clearly morally bereft arguments?

Maybe claiming a "both sides" argumentation which is technically correct, but wildly inaccurate on degrees of guilt, or using dubious support, or outright proven false support gets called out for what it is? Maybe?

You'll note, in your last few posts critiquing what bad police are doing and providing additional inside color around how those issues are being handled, you haven't seen the same criticism that you normally face WW. That isn't because you are thinking the same as everyone else on the board. It is because you are providing useful nuanced information without relying on dumbass technical arguments that anyone who can determine right and wrong can immediately see through.

Groupthink is definitely a thing here. No question. However, you get stick not because people disagree with you, but because of the lack of rigor in your argumentation and your penchant for arguing technicalities over what are clear right v wrong situations, which invariably you are arguing in support of GOP policies that range from procedurally annoying to outright horrific.

And those you mentioned are in a small minority.

I will post a classic example:

I don't believe I've called Waiver a racist or a fascist lately.

A doofus, certainly.

Need I say more?

[dannybolt]

If he's having an ulcer in Michigan, you'd think he's ready for hospitalization over those Florida numbers.

Losing by 7% in a state with a GOP Governor, Senator Skeletor, and a GOP Legislature. And its his "home state". The above being true, losing FLA by 7% would be a bloodbath, if that's how it all shakes out.

Like Al Gore (sorry to pick at that scab pete), if you can't win your home state (Trumps being NY and FLA), you aren't really putting forth a great argument for winning the country.

But maybe they are just asking old people in The Villages who want to dick with the pollsters. Maybe. Or Maybe not.

[dannybolt]

Good post. I hope WW reads this, I think he can offer good perspective and insight if he understands what you are saying.

Sigh, welp...
To quote Star Wars: Negative. It didn't go in. Just impacted on the surface.

[pete]

If he's having an ulcer in Michigan, you'd think he's ready for hospitalization over those Florida numbers.

Losing by 7% in a state with a GOP Governor, Senator Skeletor, and a GOP Legislature. And its his "home state". The above being true, losing FLA by 7% would be a bloodbath, if that's how it all shakes out.

Like Al Gore (sorry to pick at that scab pete), if you can't win your home state (Trumps being NY and FLA), you aren't really putting forth a great argument for winning the country.

But maybe they are just asking old people in The Villages who want to dick with the pollsters. Maybe. Or Maybe not.

I don't believe those Florida numbers, nor the other poll from yesterday that had Biden winning Florida by 10%. Steve Schale called those numbers "aspirational" more than real, and he's right to do so.

I expect Florida to be +/- 2% on election day just like it always is and that states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona are more likely than Florida to be the tipping point states.

[Donnie D]

Ohio will send every registered voter an application for an absentee ballot.

[ChaseSpace]

Far too early to be poll watching pete. Having been from Michigan and with having a big reunion coming up I have been talking to several of the old classmates. Now we did not live in a democrat county and to this day it still leans GOP. But some of those that I have talked to have said they are being bombarded with calls from alleged poll takers. Many say the same thing. They are tired of being called out if they do not support the left. I am hearing the same thing from friends in Tampa. So what do they do when they get these calls. They claim that they are voting for Biden. They say this because they do not trust the poll takers and do not want to be on a list that could come back and bite them.

I have a hard time believing legitimate polling firms would hire or retain employees who berate the people they're calling when they say they're not left-leaning or liberal.

I also find it hard to believe your friends would continue to answer those calls if that is actually the case and would go through the entire polling process to give false info instead of just hanging up and blocking the number.