News of the Day III

[RSchmitz]

Apparently, you don’t see any real peril for this country, given trump and his deniers on multiple ballots across the country. I do, and am working hard to elect D candidates here in Nevada. A lot of people WAY smarter than you and I see this election as an inflection point.

Every presidential election is an inflection point. I thought you were saying that incarcerating Trump to set a good example was some kind inflection point, did you not?

No, I don't see any real peril in this country as it pertains to Trump. I see plenty of peril in this country as it pertains to the path he's laid out for players like DeSantis to enter, and do some real damage.

[the_narrow_way]

Politically, he's no longer relevant, and his brand is too toxic to absorb him into any campaign.

He's literally leading nationwide polls re: R candidates for 2024. How much more relevant could he be?

[the_narrow_way]

Even with that bit of clarity, the states could never mess with the results of an election after it’s been held without clearly violating the fourteenth amendment.

Have you been watching too many cartoons as well? They almost overturned the 2020 State results in a few states and there are even more blatantly bat-shit crazy cult members in power for the mid-terms and there will be even more of them in positions of power in 2024.

[RSchmitz]

He's literally leading nationwide polls re: R candidates for 2024. How much more relevant could he be?

Good, if he wins the nomination Republicans will lose the election

[RSchmitz]

Have you been watching too many cartoons as well? They almost overturned the 2020 State results in a few states and there are even more blatantly bat-shit crazy cult members in power for the mid-terms and there will be even more of them in positions of power in 2024.

The courts could try, like they do every election. That isn’t the state legislature, buddy, so cut out the passive aggressive comments unless you want to look like a shmuck when you are wrong

[RSchmitz]

It’s hilarious to me how scared some are of the Trump boogeyman, that anarchist couldn’t beat a cardboard cutout of Obama in a national election. The fact he’s leading polls in some states just means that about 30% of our country are window lickers

[Bolthed]

Some folks were as confident as you in 2015 that there was no way he’d defeat 8-10 Republican candidates, no chance he’d actually be the nominee, zero possibility he’d win the presidency.

[the_narrow_way]

The courts could try, like they do every election. That isn’t the state legislature, buddy, so cut out the passive aggressive comments unless you want to look like a shmuck when you are wrong

What about when the state legislatures ARE the MAGA nutcases who've already proven that they'll do anything they can to ignore reality in order to put their candidate forward?

[the_narrow_way]

It’s hilarious to me how scared some are of the Trump boogeyman, that anarchist couldn’t beat a cardboard cutout of Obama in a national election. The fact he’s leading polls in some states just means that about 30% of our country are window lickers

It only takes 30% when you've removed the opposition from voter rolls, made it harder to vote in D counties, etc. I wish I could say that your lack of concern was hilarious but it's not.

[jdhebner]

It’s hilarious to me how scared some are of the Trump boogeyman, that anarchist couldn’t beat a cardboard cutout of Obama in a national election. The fact he’s leading polls in some states just means that about 30% of our country are window lickers

This is the most frightening post I’ve ever read.

[pete]

Even with that bit of clarity, the states could never mess with the results of an election after it’s been held without clearly violating the fourteenth amendment. The courts? Sure, we are all fucked right now with the current lineup of justices if it went to a decision there, and no amount of legislation could fix that unless we dissolve the constitution entirely.

We do need clearer laws to safeguard voting rights of citizens in the 21st century when it comes to how states administer elections, such as mail in ballots and electronic voting

All it takes is for the right wing media to float a conspiracy theory in a closely contested state to muddy the waters and this Supreme Court would have all the cover it needs to throw the whole election to the Republicans. The need for this fix to the law is urgent.

[pete]

A strawman argument. He is clearly senile and unlikely to run for re-election. My point is that despite that, he beat the orange imbecile. The Trump brand is very weak if it can’t beat someone who is about to fall off the wrong end of the bell curve.

LOL, you need to stop watching Fox. Is he old? Yes. Has a touch of a stuttering problem he's dealt with his whole life? Yes. Senile? Did you watch the speech he gave to the UN yesterday?

Also, given the power of incumbency and how hard it is to defeat an incumbent POTUS, how the right has driven up Harris' unfavorables, and how Democrats' fortunes and his own personal approval ratings have rebounded, I would say it's greater than 50/50 he stands for re-election.

[pete]

Every presidential election is an inflection point. I thought you were saying that incarcerating Trump to set a good example was some kind inflection point, did you not?

No, I don't see any real peril in this country as it pertains to Trump. I see plenty of peril in this country as it pertains to the path he's laid out for players like DeSantis to enter, and do some real damage.

I see intense peril from any candidate who could win the Republican nomination in this day and age given the base's slide into insanity and their warm embrace of fascism as a MO.

[pete]

Some folks were as confident as you in 2015 that there was no way he’d defeat 8-10 Republican candidates, no chance he’d actually be the nominee, zero possibility he’d win the presidency.

Precisely. The Republican Party used to have a very rational pecking order for ascension to the nomination until 2016. Now there's nothing rational to how that party functions. I reiterate: anybody saying they know for sure what will happen in a Trump v. DeSantis primary is absolutely fooling themselves because none of it is based on what's rational anymore.

Rationally, DeSantis gives them all the MAGA fascism with a fraction of the scandal baggage, but if scandal baggage really mattered to Republicans Trump wouldn't have kept ~90% support with those people throughout his presidency. Scandals are almost badges of courage now in Republican politics, and there's folks who predict the second Trump makes some mean joke about DeSantis being a dwarfish wanna-be version of Trump the MAGA cult will turn on him. Being a non-crazy person, I wouldn't hazard to guess which of those two adventures the crazies would ultimately pick. I'd also point out there's a chance that sore loser Trump could vow to run third party if he lost the nomination to DeSantis, which is something GOP party leaders were deathly afraid of during the primaries in 2016. Timing to get ballot access in 50 states would be sticky, but that's also a possibility.

Either way, I do tend to agree Trump would be the easier of the two to defeat because there's a proven coalition that was built in 2018 and got larger in 2020 that is anti-Trump and anti-MAGA and is actually reawakening now in 2022 and is likely to give Democrats a much better than expected showing in the midterms. I think DeSantis' flaw in a general election in 2024 is that he would be easy to brand as a MAGA candidate and Democrats are realizing that branding is really cryptonite for the Republicans. Even DubDub is running away from being called MAGA.

Put it another way: Trump and MAGA are as radioactive to the Republican brand now as Herbert Hoover and being a Hooverite was in the wake of the Great Depression, and Democrats rode that heater until the 60's politically.

We should not forget that Democrats have won the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 presidential elections spanning over 32 years and only the BS of the Electoral College has skewed things. In presidential election years, it's fair to assume Democrats have the larger coalition by default and anything (be it Trump or a candidate like DeSantis who can easily be tagged a MAGA Republican) that motivates that coalition to turnout IMO makes them modest favorites. (That's why Republicans are always pre-emptively cheating, because they know they are very unlikely to win a free and fair election.)

[RSchmitz]

What about when the state legislatures ARE the MAGA nutcases who've already proven that they'll do anything they can to ignore reality in order to put their candidate forward?

You could have a legislation full of Steve Bannon clones and that wouldn't mean shit in the courts.