News of the Day III

[dannybolt]

I've not read anything anywhere that says that Tesla is having anything other than massive issues with FSD, which seems very much to be the lynchpin of ARK's analysis. Tesla conquering FSD is not a safe assumption. That assumption leads to Tesla dominating a market they aren't even in yet, which is at least partially leading to the valuation that ARK is arriving at.

Color me skeptical to think that a company who has never experienced serious competition in its space by other industry adjacent competitors, who are going to be entering into that market in increasing frequency, is going to "easily" become the most valuable company in the world in a few years.

You are buying a shitload of hype. Nothing wrong with that, just be aware. Everything you have typed so far is screaming stock pump. From the valuator you cited to what you are posting on here. Like I said, I'm wrong all the time, but you got some big blind spots you might wanna close up.

And whoever told you P/Es are only good for mature companies is selling you Omaha ocean front property. That's utter bollocks.

[RSchmitz]

I've not read anything anywhere that says that Tesla is having anything other than massive issues with FSD, which seems very much to be the lynchpin of ARK's analysis. Tesla conquering FSD is not a safe assumption. That assumption leads to Tesla dominating a market they aren't even in yet, which is at least partially leading to the valuation that ARK is arriving at.

Color me skeptical to think that a company who has never experienced serious competition in its space by other industry adjacent competitors, who are going to be entering into that market in increasing frequency, is going to "easily" become the most valuable company in the world in a few years.

You are buying a shitload of hype. Nothing wrong with that, just be aware. Everything you have typed so far is screaming stock pump. From the valuator you cited to what you are posting on here. Like I said, I'm wrong all the time, but you got some big blind spots you might wanna close up.

And whoever told you P/Es are only good for mature companies is selling you Omaha ocean front property. That's utter bollocks.

To clarify, I didn't say Tesla rolling out FSD was a safe assumption, I said if they can successfully get FSD off the ground it's a safe assumption that they will dominate with it. They will absolutely murder their competition because of vertical integration, their margins will be extraordinary. I've seen some estimate of the net profits they would take from ridehailing, even with significantly cheaper rides, and its absurd.

With that out of the way, yes FSD is a safe assumption, the question is how long from now? Could be this year, could be in a decade, could be in many decades. You made the statement that there is a lot more risk involved with Tesla stock than there is reward. I want you to consider for a moment, what happens if Tesla is what it is and they stop innovating. The stock price may drop a little bit, but they will still produce a million cars this year and they have a loyal following and are years ahead of the competition tech wise. Their valuation will still steadily increase as they increase manufacturing capacity and ship more cars.

Now I want you to consider what happens if Tesla achieves their lofty goals. $1500 was the BEAR case that ARK made if they did not achieve FSD or ridehailing, their base case was over $3000, they even said there was a 5% chance Tesla would be worth 28,000 by 2025. Like holy shit, how did they achieve that number? Well if they can produce an EV vehicle with full FSD and especially if they can improve the battery to the point that it can get 500+ mile range, they won't have competition. The theme so far in this thread has been range and cost, but the cost of a battery pack has decreased by 88% over the last decade, and the range has doubled. It's estimated that by the year 2025 the cost to produce an EV vehicle will be less than the cost to produce an ICE, these are short term problems that will go away in a few years. Where does that leave a company like Ford then?

P/E's are not only good for mature companies, what I was trying to say is that you can't value them the same.

[ChaseSpace]

I seriously hope Gaetz is done for good. The Q crowd is, unsurprisingly, quiet about his charges.

[pete]

I seriously hope Gaetz is done for good. The Q crowd is, unsurprisingly, quiet about his charges.

Evidently he got caught up in whatever that tax collector in Seminole County got caught up in, which started as corruption and ended in running an interstate sex trafficking ring for underaged girls he was using his tax assessor position to target. I was reading what they have on the tax assessor and holy shit was it bad. If they've got a tenth of that on Gaetz he's about to be someone's prison bride for a while.

[pete]

I won't post the whole Twitter thread, but if you want to read up, here's the opening Tweet. Joel Greenberg is the man in question.

[dannybolt]

Jesus tapdancing Christ. Putting Gaetz to one side for a second. Holy fuck. If even half that is true about the Seminole Tax Collector...
BTW, is Brianna Wu another Seth Abramson fan fic writer posing as a journo? Nothing in her bio would lead me to believe that she should have the information in that thread.

Now lets bring Gaetz back. At minimum he has catastrophically bad judgement, which in and of itself isn't something you can put somebody in jail for, but to say that things aren't looking good for the dipshit in question would be understating things considerably.

[Hoek]

Yeah Brianna Wu is definitely not a journalist and has some credibility issues of her own. She's a transgender game developer who made a name for herself by launching herself headlong into all the drama of Gamergate.

[pete]

Jesus tapdancing Christ. Putting Gaetz to one side for a second. Holy fuck. If even half that is true about the Seminole Tax Collector...
BTW, is Brianna Wu another Seth Abramson fan fic writer posing as a journo? Nothing in her bio would lead me to believe that she should have the information in that thread.

Now lets bring Gaetz back. At minimum he has catastrophically bad judgement, which in and of itself isn't something you can put somebody in jail for, but to say that things aren't looking good for the dipshit in question would be understating things considerably.

The court filing laying it all out is literally sitting open to anyone who wants to read it online:

https://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/public-safety/2021/04/01/former-seminole-county-tax-collector-joel-greenberg-facing-new-charges

Shoot the messenger all you want.

[dannybolt]

The court filing laying it all out is literally sitting open to anyone who wants to read it online:

https://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/public-safety/2021/04/01/former-seminole-county-tax-collector-joel-greenberg-facing-new-charges

Shoot the messenger all you want.

Asking about the veracity of someone who is not a journalist but is posting things as fact without sources is not shooting the messenger. C'mon man, you know better than that. Thanks for the link.

[Donnie D]

An easier read.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/politics/os-ne-who-is-joel-greenberg-matt-gaetz-20210331-kfebgrmiezal7j6jx5s7vzky7e-story.html

[jdhebner]

Asking about the veracity of someone who is not a journalist but is posting things as fact without sources is not shooting the messenger. C'mon man, you know better than that. Thanks for the link.

would that we did the same for credentialed journalists too. We wouldn’t need fact checking sites like SNOPES.

[pete]

An easier read.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/poli...y7e-story.html

That story, as bad as it is, is like the junior varsity version of his crimes. Seriously, read the new criminal complaint against him. The sex trafficking charge is only 1-2 pages of it. A lot of it is just some pretty outlandish corruption and financial crimes. In fact, let me just list all the counts so you get a flavor of what this cat is into:

1.) Sex Trafficking of a Child
2.) Driver's Privacy Protection Act Violations
3.) Driver's Privacy Protection Act Violations
4.) Unlawful Use of Means of Identification of Another Person
5.) Production of an Identification Document
6.) Aggravated Identity Theft
7.) Production and Identification and False Identification Documents
8.) Production and Identification and False Identification Documents
9.) Aggravated Identity Theft
10.) Aggravated Identity Theft
11.) Wire Fraud
12.) Wire Fraud
13.) Wire Fraud
14.) Wire Fraud
15.) Wire Fraud
16.) Wire Fraud
17.) Wire Fraud
18.) Wire Fraud
19.) Wire Fraud
20.) Wire Fraud
21.) Illegal Money Transactions
22.) Illegal Money Transactions
23.) Illegal Money Transactions
24.) Stalking
25.) Unlawful Use of Means of Identification of Another Person
26.) Conspiracy to Bribe a Public Official, Submission of a False Claim, Theft of Government Property, and Wire Fraud
27.) Bribery of a Public Official
28.) Submission of a False Claim
29.) Submission of a False Claim
30.) Submission of a False Claim

[dannybolt]

would that we did the same for credentialed journalists too. We wouldn’t need fact checking sites like SNOPES.

This is a very good point.

[Puckhead]

That story, as bad as it is, is like the junior varsity version of his crimes. Seriously, read the new criminal complaint against him. The sex trafficking charge is only 1-2 pages of it. A lot of it is just some pretty outlandish corruption and financial crimes. In fact, let me just list all the counts so you get a flavor of what this cat is into:

1.) Sex Trafficking of a Child
2.) Driver's Privacy Protection Act Violations
3.) Driver's Privacy Protection Act Violations
4.) Unlawful Use of Means of Identification of Another Person
5.) Production of an Identification Document
6.) Aggravated Identity Theft
7.) Production and Identification and False Identification Documents
8.) Production and Identification and False Identification Documents
9.) Aggravated Identity Theft
10.) Aggravated Identity Theft
11.) Wire Fraud
12.) Wire Fraud
13.) Wire Fraud
14.) Wire Fraud
15.) Wire Fraud
16.) Wire Fraud
17.) Wire Fraud
18.) Wire Fraud
19.) Wire Fraud
20.) Wire Fraud
21.) Illegal Money Transactions
22.) Illegal Money Transactions
23.) Illegal Money Transactions
24.) Stalking
25.) Unlawful Use of Means of Identification of Another Person
26.) Conspiracy to Bribe a Public Official, Submission of a False Claim, Theft of Government Property, and Wire Fraud
27.) Bribery of a Public Official
28.) Submission of a False Claim
29.) Submission of a False Claim
30.) Submission of a False Claim

That is JUST the guy you’d want to be front and center with, along with the grabber. As Desi would say, “you got some splaining to do..”.( And it ain’t Lucy out buying a dress.)

[Puckhead]

So, possible 20’ wall of phosphate laced water may make it’s way to the lower Bay. (from Piney Point mine). God knows what that will do to the ecosystem of the lower Bay, and the 300+ folks that live in its wake. I always found the phosphate mines in inland FL disgusting.

https://www.wfla.com/news/local-news/manatee-county/us-41-closed-evacuations-underway-near-piney-point-with-wastewater-collapse-imminent/