News of the Day III

[pete]

There was a bad Landmark poll in Georgia yesterday, but there was also a poll leaked out from a Republican pollster. Bear in mind the Biden campaign has stated their internal polls have Biden up 3.6% in Georgia.

[Donnie D]

According to Harris’s chief of staff, in Georgia, 49% of all new registered voters were persons of color and 46% were people under 30. The vast percentage of these voters will be voting for Biden.

The total number of new voters in Georgia was 800,000.

Abrams lost by 50,000.

[pete]

The total number of new voters in Georgia was 800,000.

Abrams lost by 50,000.

James Carville the other night said that based on the numbers he saw out of the Atlanta collar counties on the first day of early voting it appeared to him Georgia was about to become a full-on blue state and wasn't even going to pause at purple. I'm not quite that optimistic and I expect it to be a bit more like North Carolina's slow evolution BUT if Democrats remove voter suppression from the equation with a new VRA, yes, I could see NC and GA becoming reliably blue states overnight by small but durable margins given the suburban realignment.

[Puckhead]

2016 PTSD means Democrats may never get complacent again. It's annoying to constantly talk about, but it serves a purpose.

Precisely. I’m still getting texts every other day from NV Dems to phone bank, etc. Even in the face of seemingly great news, nobody is letting up. So, yes, the talking heads constant “what about 2016?” has gotten really old.

[pete]

Trump, sensing he may be about to lose, is lashing out at those in his government who have refused to go whole hog to investigate/indict Joe Biden on BS charges to help his re-election campaign. So, he's said disparaging things about Bill Barr (talk about not knowing where your bread is buttered) and Jr. has been saying terrible things about the FBI. Now, Trump's allies at Fox News, including Lou Dobbs, are shitting on Lindsay Graham in the middle of a razor tight Senate election.

Dear GOP: he doesn't care about you. He'll burn down your party out of spite, and this is the proof.

And it's too fucking late for you to do a damned thing about it. You hate to see it.

[pete]

Precisely. I’m still getting texts every other day from NV Dems to phone bank, etc. Even in the face of seemingly great news, nobody is letting up. So, yes, the talking heads constant “what about 2016?” has gotten really old.

I'm looking forward to retiring "what about 2016" in the Democratic lexicon for a while. Matter of fact, I'm looking forward to dunking on a lot of the 2016 derived platitudes about polling and strategy and everything else if this election goes down the way I think it might.

[Donnie D]

Biden pulls all of his ads in Colorado and moves the money to Georgia.

[pete]

Biden pulls all of his ads in Colorado and moves the money to Georgia.

As he should. I have Colorado has the safest "purple" state on the board (because it's not really a purple state anymore because of its education level), as it nudged ahead of Virginia in the last day or two. I've got him down to win Colorado by over 14% right now.

I've got Georgia as the most winnable of the four "toss up" states that are swing states within a 4% margin, up in Georgia about 3%. 1% lead in Iowa. 0.5% lead in Ohio. 0.2% lead in Texas (which probably isn't Texas GOP shenanigan-proof).

[Donnie D]

There are also 2 competitive senate seats that a Biden win will help. One is going to a run off, but the other will be decided on election night

[pete]

There are also 2 competitive senate seats that a Biden win will help. One is going to a run off, but the other will be decided on election night

If neither Ossoff nor Perdue get to 50%, it could also go to a runoff. Not an impossible outcome, but if Biden wins GA by 3-4%, I think his coattails get Ossoff over the line at 50+1.

Warnock, IMO, is on pace to "win" the opening round of the special by a good margin. He'll be in the high-30's to low-40's, I think. It looks like Loeffler might make it through in second place, although that's less certain. If you're Warnock, you want Loeffler. She's way more beatable in the runoff.

[RSchmitz]

Time to stay away from News of the Day for a bit, I don't need my heart broken again from false assurances

[Donnie D]

Time to stay away from News of the Day for a bit, I don't need my heart broken again from false assurances

Glad to see I’m not the only on that is a doubting Thomas. I think Danny is with us too.

[Donnie D]

Conservative media such as the National Review and Newsweek publish articles this weekend (what a coincidence) that the reason there are fewer Trump signs this year is that Trump voters are afraid that their homes will be vandalized by Biden supporters. They again promote that the hidden Trump voters will prevail as in 2016.

[nutznboltz]

Glad to see I’m not the only on that is a doubting Thomas. I think Danny is with us too.

I will join you in the same boat. I won't feel confident until probably January, around Inauguration Day. Even then it might be must see TV to see if Trump vacates the premises. I doubt he would show up on the dais like Obama and Hillary did for his Inauguration either. His ego would not let him admit he was defeated.

[pete]

Conservative media such as the National Review and Newsweek publish articles this weekend (what a coincidence) that the reason there are fewer Trump signs this year is that Trump voters are afraid that their homes will be vandalized by Biden supporters. They again promote that the hidden Trump voters will prevail as in 2016.

The same week it was revealed that right wing white supremacists were responsible for fire bombing the Minneapolis Police Precinct after George Floyd's murder and not BLM protestors. Two weeks after it was revealed right wing militia members were plotting to kidnap and execute the governor of Michigan.

Conservative media is a cancer on our society.