News of the Day III

[Puckhead]

I would love to see this turd flushes.

Haaaaaa. I’d much rather hear it..I don’t want to see it...

[pete]

I found this interesting given I had posted something a month or two ago about a spike in Democratic registrations in the county where Scranton, PA is located and Donnie wondering whether that was really a positive for Biden or not. There was an internal poll from the House district there that showed Biden doing well there, but here's a PPP poll of the city itself:

This was one of the primary reasons I thought Biden would drag Trump in a GE long before COVID was a thing. Biden's ties to PA and his broader cultural appeal to the Rust Belt are hard to beat.

[pete]

Meanwhile, in Senate action, Montana is (probably) tied and The Economist now considers Kansas a tossup:

This is a Rasmussen poll. That means it probably skews R. That means Montana is tied, IMO. I feel like I've watched this movie a couple, three times before where Tester hangs around, hangs around, and wins at the tape. Bullock doing the same act this whole cycle.

Note The Economist also has *both* Georgia Senate seats as tossups and for a brief time they had SC there, too. This map shows 51 seats solid or leaning D, but a plausible pathway to as many as 54 seats.

[pete]

So, Economist's change *appears* to be based on a poll done by a Republican leaning pollster that came to light a couple of weeks ago that showed Bollier leading. I remember Lean Tossup made a big deal about it because the top line and crosstabs, coming from a Republican pollster, looked really bad for the Republicans. Lean Tossup actually has the race leaning D with a 51.1% chance that Bollier wins.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/kansas/

https://leantossup.ca/us-senate/

Those wacky Canadians now predict 54.5 seats for the D's and South Carolina is right on the razor's edge of flipping into their column, too. PPP's polling suggests Hegar may have a shot in a high turnout election in Texas against Cornyn, too. Seriously, one more disastrous debate performance from Trump may be the end of the Republican Party for a while, the way things are headed.

[pete]

Also, from ABC News, this is what happens when you believe your own bullshit and hire clowns like Traflgar and the like. Eventually you look up and reality feeds you a shit sandwich.

You hate to see it.

[pete]

I don't want to post all of it, because it's boring, but there's a bunch of Florida State Leg polling out today that shows Trump's support absolutely crumbling in Florida. Right now it's Choose Your Own Adventure time:

1.) National polling shows an environment where Biden leads by 10-11% in the good live surveys.

2.) State polling shows an environment where Biden wins comfortably by a margin somewhere between Obama's 2008 and 2012 margins.

3.) District level polling, however, is showing a historic wipeout coming at the GOP.

FTR, I expect something between #1 and #3, tempered by voter suppression in states where the GOP has control of the machinery and no scruples, like Florida, Georgia, and Texas.

[Donnie D]

The Trump campaign still owes the City of Jacksonville $150,000 for the costs of preparing for the RNC rally. good luck collecting from that dead beat.

[Donnie D]

Will there be a debate this week?

the Trump campaign tells the debate committee that they want new topics. They don’t want to talk about COVID again since they discussed that in the first debate in which Trump defeated both Chris Wallace and Joe Biden. they haven’t said what they will do if the topics aren’t changed.

President Trump at his Arizona rally: "They're getting tired of the pandemic, aren't we? You turn on CNN. That's all they cover. Covid, covid, pandemic. Covid, covid, covid. They're trying to talk people out of voting...People aren't buying it, CNN, you dumb bastards."

[pete]

Will there be a debate this week?

the Trump campaign tells the debate committee that they want new topics. They don’t want to talk about COVID again since they discussed that in the first debate in which Trump defeated both Chris Wallace and Joe Biden. they haven’t said what they will do if the topics aren’t changed.

President Trump at his Arizona rally: "They're getting tired of the pandemic, aren't we? You turn on CNN. That's all they cover. Covid, covid, pandemic. Covid, covid, covid. They're trying to talk people out of voting...People aren't buying it, CNN, you dumb bastards."

So...

He has to debate if he wants to win the election because he's trailing by a significant amount and needs a big game changer.

BUT

If I were the GOP, I'd be rooting for him to back out of the debate because if he does as poorly in the last debate as he did in the first one, I think we're looking at a rout that takes down half the GOP Senate candidates with him. And if I were a betting man, I'd say it's a 99% certitude he's not capable of having a good debate with the pressure he's under.

[Bolthed]

But Ghouliani and Chris Christie did such a great job of prepping him last time. Cmon, they got this!

[Flycoon]

So...

He has to debate if he wants to win the election because he's trailing by a significant amount and needs a big game changer.

BUT

If I were the GOP, I'd be rooting for him to back out of the debate because if he does as poorly in the last debate as he did in the first one, I think we're looking at a rout that takes down half the GOP Senate candidates with him. And if I were a betting man, I'd say it's a 99% certitude he's not capable of having a good debate with the pressure he's under.

More adderall please.

[Flycoon]

So unfair. Microphones to be muted in the final debate during the opponent’s response.

[Donnie D]

Kelly Loeffler: There is nothing that Trump has said or done that I disagree with.

Nothing.

[Bolthed]

Gonna go out on a limb and guess ol’ gp has ridden his hog past one of these signs and added to his tally of Trump voters. 😂

[Donnie D]

Donald Trump: "People are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots. He’s is a nice guy. He's been here for 500 years."

"Fauci is a disaster. If I listened to him, we'd have 500,000 deaths,"