News of the Day III

[Flycoon]

I read that 4 Republican Senators have already said that they would not confirm, so I don't see it happening.

They are lying motherfuckers.

[pete]

I think they promised not to confirm before the election.

Collins is screwed if Moscow Mitch forces a vote before the election. If she votes to confirm, she loses any remaining moderates. If she doesn’t vote to confirm, she loses the right wing. If he does it during the lame duck and she loses, she either does a big fuck you to save Roe or she does a big fuck you to her constituents. It won’t matter, politically as she is never running for anything in the future. So she is a huge wild card.

I look for the vote to occur between the election and when Kelly is sworn in - which will be in November.

Once Kelly is sworn in (I’m assuming he wins) there still has to be 3 defections. That’s why I think they do it between the election and when Kelly becomes a Senator. 4 may not defect.

There's no political advantage to McConnell to move on this before the election. By making the election a referendum on Roe and the Court, he shifts the focus from it being a referendum on Trump, thereby possibly saving his Senate majority.

[Donnie D]

There is likely to be 1 defection on the democrats too. Manchin isn’t a reliable vote.

He’s going to nominate Amy Barrett and both Manchin and Kaine voted to confirm her previously.

[Donnie D]

There's no political advantage to McConnell to move on this before the election. By making the election a referendum on Roe and the Court, he shifts the focus from it being a referendum on Trump, thereby possibly saving his Senate majority.

The majority doesn’t want Roe overturned. I think a referendum on Roe is going to solidify suburban women for Biden.

[pete]

The majority doesn’t want Roe overturned. I think a referendum on Roe is going to solidify suburban women for Biden.

McConnell doesn't care about Trump. Trump's dead meat. What McConnell's looking at is he is a lock to pick up Alabama so he needs to hold the Democrats to three flips to keep his majority.

Arizona and Colorado are gone. With RBG dying, given how the abortion issue plays in Maine and with Collins' Kavanaugh history, Collins is probably dead meat, too.

Democrats need one more flip. North Carolina seems the most likely to go. Georgia and Iowa are on the razor's edge, too. Then there's assorted third tier opportunities, some of which (like South Carolina, for instance) evaporate now.

North Carolina, Georgia, and Iowa have a lot of Evangelicals. McConnell's calculus is he's going to make his stand with three states that were red states in the last election and are more socially conservative than the country as a whole.

And, as you noted, even if the Democrats get to 50/50 and Biden wins, IMO the Republicans will try to get Manchin to switch parties and even if he doesn't he's unlikely to support filibuster reform for a retaliatory strike that includes court packing, making DC a state, etc. So the Democrats really need to get to at least 51 Senate seats.

[Donnie D]

RCP has Moved Arizona and Maine to toss up. That surprises me. I think those are democrat pick ups

.

[pete]

RCP has Moved Arizona and Maine to toss up. That surprises me. I think those are democrat pick ups

.

They will be. RCP is a Republican site. Don't ever forget that.

538 rates Kelly as having a 78% chance of winning AZ and Gideon having a 53% chance of beating Collins in ME.

But, there's only been one poll this entire year, in June, showing Collins winning and that was a partisan poll. The last two polls were by Quinnipiac, showing Gideon winning by 12, which was probably an outlier, and a high-quality NYT/Siena poll showing Gideon winning by 4. There's also been several polls lately showing Biden winning ME-2, which is the most Republican CD in the state, and Cook Political Report just moved that seat's Democratic Congressman to a safer position this past week. For his part, statewide, Biden has a 14 point lead in Maine in the 538 average in an era where ticket-splitting is rarer than in the past.

And Collins is probably straight-up screwed by RBG dying because the thing that got her in trouble to begin with that she's been running from all cycle is her Kavanaugh vote.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/maine/

Likewise, in Arizona, just two polls all year showing McSally winning, and several showing it a double-digit blow out. His polling average lead is 7.6%.

And McSally is HORRIBLY unpopular in Arizona.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/arizona/

Those two seats plus Colorado get the Democrats to 49 assuming they lose Alabama. They have a 71% chance of winning NC according to 538 and the polling looks good there, but NC scares me always because it sort of behaves like Florida in some ways in terms of the narrowness of its elections. Teresa Greenfield now rates as having a 53% chance of beating Joni Ernst after Selzer put her up 45-42 today in Iowa. I have a hard time believing she has an equal chance of beating Ernst as Gideon does in Maine given the state of the presidential races (close in Iowa but Biden killing Trump in Maine).

The next closest races are Steve Bullock has a 39% shot in Montana, but that feels overcooked to me as good a candidate as Bullock is because Biden's not close enough in Montana to make that a possibility. The realer possibility to me is Jon Ossoff who is given a 30% shot in Georgia. IMO, that's going to be a 50/50 race (and I think the presidential will be very close in Georgia, too).

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/

[Donnie D]

So last night Trump told us that: 1) White People have better genes; 2) that Robert E. Lee who was a traitor and fought for slavery was a good man; and 3) that American History should not teach about slavery.

[Puckhead]

So last night Trump told us that: 1) White People have better genes; 2) that Robert E. Lee who was a traitor and fought for slavery was a good man; and 3) that American History should not teach about slavery.

Don't forget that it was wonderful that a reporter got hit by a rubber bullet. The herd mentality knows the guy as "Welshi".

[gphockey]

RCP has Moved Arizona and Maine to toss up. That surprises me. I think those are democrat pick ups

.

I told you guys that when I ride motorcycle around Maine I have seen hundreds, likely thousands of Trump signs in front of houses. Only recently have I seen more Biden signs totaling maybe, 20.
Could be wrong but pretty sure district 2 goes Trump and might be close in district 1 traditional democratic territory we call “Massachusetts north”, maine coast from Portland south.
Pretty sure we are using rank choice voting in the presidential election. There had been some pushback on it up here though.

[pete]

I told you guys that when I ride motorcycle around Maine I have seen hundreds, likely thousands of Trump signs in front of houses. Only recently have I seen more Biden signs totaling maybe, 20.
Could be wrong but pretty sure district 2 goes Trump and might be close in district 1 traditional democratic territory we call “Massachusetts north”, maine coast from Portland south.
Pretty sure we are using rank choice voting in the presidential election. There had been some pushback on it up here though.

REALITY CHECK:

FiveThirtyEight now rates ME-2 a coin flip in their model. The last three polls of the district were Biden +4, Biden +9, and Biden +2 respectively.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/maine-2/

The last five House polls out of ME-2 show Golden (D) holding his seat he won in 2018 by +19, +13, +5, +9, and +10 respectively.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/maine/2/

FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 97% chance of winning ME-1. The last three polls in that district were Biden +32, Biden +23, and Biden +31 respectively.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/maine-1/

FiveThirtyEight gives Biden an 88% chance of winning the state of Maine statewide. The last three polls there were Biden +21, Biden +17, and Biden +14 respectively.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/maine/

FiveThirtyEight gives Sarah Gideon (D) a 53% chance of defeating Susan Collins for Senate in Maine. The last three polls there were Gideon +12, Gideon +5, and Gideon +1 respectively. However, I would say if Gideon is slightly ahead at this juncture against a Maine institution like Susan Collins, she should be more heavily favored given Biden is predicted to win statewide by 8% (per 538, but I suspect the margin is larger than that) and in the most heavily Republican strongholds in the state the Democratic House rep has posted double-digit leads and the presidential is considered a coin flip.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/maine/

I suspect Biden will actually win Maine by more on the order of 12% and that's an awful lot of ticket splitting to have to happen to save Susan Collins in an era of hyperpartisanship where ticket splitting is getting rarer and rarer.

[Donnie D]

I told you guys that when I ride motorcycle around Maine I have seen hundreds, likely thousands of Trump signs in front of houses. Only recently have I seen more Biden signs totaling maybe, 20.
Could be wrong but pretty sure district 2 goes Trump and might be close in district 1 traditional democratic territory we call “Massachusetts north”, maine coast from Portland south.
Pretty sure we are using rank choice voting in the presidential election. There had been some pushback on it up here though.

Those were senate races. I don’t think anyone is predicting a Trump victory in Maine.

[Donnie D]

The Lightning are opening Amalie Arena for COVID watch parties for STMs. $15.00 to attend. It may be a test to see how many folks are willing to enter the arena in anticipation of having fans in the seats next year.

I’ll pass.

[gphockey]

i got boots on the ground here. Not making me an expert by any means for sure. Just passing on what I am seeing and what people are saying. That’s ok, believe the polls and I am sure 2016 won’t repeat...could it?

[Donnie D]

Clinton won Maine, so yes, I think it will be like 2016.

Trump supporters are member of a cult who love to advertise their membership in that cult. So you you see a lot of signs.

But my thinking is this. He received 63 million votes in 2016. That’s his maximum. Very few people who voted for Clinton are going to watch the disaster of the last 4 years and decide to vote for Trump. On the other hand, there are a significant number of people who want the lunacy to end.

He’s lost support among seniors who resent him asking them to die for the economy and resent not being free to see their grandchildren and travel. Now he’s threatening to take their social security. He’s lost support among veterans who resent being called suckers for serving in the military. There are a bunch of young first time voters who hate Trump.

People who didn’t vote last time because Clinton was going to win aren’t making that mistake again. And people who voted 3rd party because they didn’t like either one don’t feel that way this time.

Logically, I just don’t see how he can win, except by cheating. He’s trying, but I don’t think he will get away with it. If he does, our 245 year democracy will have gone the way of Ancient Rome.