News of the Day III

[ChaseSpace]

I support a reduction in law enforcement for social workers and anything that can improve the current system, I just don’t expect a union to sign off on anything that reduces jobs(or hints at potentially doing so). That like goes against their entire existence, I don’t feel that is a betrayal

The unions could very easily just refuse to endorse anyone and put out a weak line saying "In these turbulent times we would prefer to remain apolitical" but they can't even manage that. They're throwing their weight behind the man telling them to use more of the brutality methods that have sparked wide spread protests.

[Flycoon]

They're throwing their weight behind the man telling them to use more of the brutality methods that have sparked wide spread protests.

Blue line....

[Donnie D]

New NBC News/Marist poll of Florida:

Biden 48%
Trump 48%

[pete]

Florida was always going to tighten. Whoever wins it will win it by less than 2%. Florida gonna Florida.

Rasmussen had Biden up 4% in Ohio today. They’re a garbage pollster, but they’re usually garbage pollsters in the R direction.

[pete]

Florida was always going to tighten. Whoever wins it will win it by less than 2%. Florida gonna Florida.

Rasmussen had Biden up 4% in Ohio today. They’re a garbage pollster, but they’re usually garbage pollsters in the R direction.

What's interesting is Florida's running almost 3% to the right of where the national polls say it should in my model, which compares the delta of Clinton's 2016 national finish to the polls with undecideds and third parties allocated and then does the same in each state and compares the two. The only other swing state with a bigger disparity is Iowa, which is running nearly 3% to the left of where the national polls say it should be.

The other states running to the right of the national polls right now are Minnesota (1.4%), Pennsylvania (0.8%), North Carolina (0.7%), and Georgia (1.7%).

Among the key battleground states where the polling is to the left of the national polls, Michigan (1.5%), Wisconsin (2.5%), Arizona (2.6%), Ohio (1.5%), Texas (2.0%), and Iowa (2.9%).

Florida moves to the bottom of my list of states where Biden is winning outside the MOE, dropping below Arizona now, with Biden currently projected to win by 4.35% (51.2% to 46.8%), but I expect it to continue to tighten a little more.

Not too much more, mind you, because Trump's convention bounce has worn off and his disapproval nationally has started to go back up again.

[Donnie D]

Breakdown of Florida poll

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhaKaLSWoAEvmXN?format=png&name=small

[pete]

You might want to see Steve Schale's take about this and a bad Miami-Dade poll that came out today.

A lot of attention on the Miami Dade poll today. Yes, several polls have demonstrated there is work to do, particularly with non-Cuban Hispanics in FL.

@UniteCountryPAC
is poised to invest about $1.2 million over the next few weeks to help drive the VP's message here. 1/

Couple of things to keep in mind: Every election is different - and this one is no different. Biden is doing far better with suburban whites and seniors, which is why in polls, he is leading in Florida - notwithstanding the softness with non-Cuban Hispanics. 2/

Our research shows that softness is as much a need to inform on the VP's message as anything. In our polling, almost 10% of non-Cuban Hispanics are undecided - and another 13% are with Trump but openly considering Biden. Biden's support is more solid. 3/

But keep in mind Florida is a puzzle - there is no one key to winning Florida - despite what the media will try to portray. I do believe Biden is in better shape today in Florida than we were at this time in either 08 or 12. 4/

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1303356038545117185?s=20

[pete]

Live by the Marist poll, die by the Marist poll...

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 53% (+9)
Trump 44%

@maristpoll
/
@NBCNews
, LV, 8/31-9/9
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-cont...2009081145.pdf

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1303628253626855424?s=20

A raft of state polls came out this morning. Most are ok to really good for Biden. Some are a little disappointing (Morning Consult saying Biden is down 5 in Ohio) and others a little head scratching (Morning Consult saying Biden is only up 6 in Colorado).

But, the preponderance of the evidence suggests Trump is in trouble.

[pete]

Trump campaign was supposed to go back on air in PA this week - but has pulled its ad buy, per
@maxasteele
of American Bridge.

Campaign has been dark in PA since early Aug. (Super PAC America First Action has aired ads)

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1303716521227804676?s=20

As I understand it, Pennsylvania is one of those states where they're pretty heavily invested in Facebook disinformation right now. Florida, also, and evidently the Florida Facebook stuff may be one of the sources of Biden's soft numbers with Florida Latinos.

Still, this seems to point more toward Trump's campaign being low on money than anything else. Pulling money out of Michigan or Arizona might be seen as a strategic retreat. Pennsylvania is a firewall state for Trump. If he loses it, he's probably cooked.

[Puckhead]

These new audio recordings of Trump in Feb and March, showing he knew precisely how deadly this virus was, are absolutely devastating. Woodward’s book “Rage” details his 18 recorded interviews with Trump, some of which show how Trump had been briefed in specifics, yet he chose complete dishonesty in communicating with the public.

Biden and Lincoln Project need to run this as a loop in Florida. This is him, in his own words, knowingly lying (bigly) to the public. No way to “fake news” this crap.

[ChaseSpace]

The DOJ is moving to take over Trump's defense in a civil suit brought against him by a woman who accused him of rape.

How is that legal in the slightest?

[pete]

The DOJ is moving to take over Trump's defense in a civil suit brought against him by a woman who accused him of rape.

How is that legal in the slightest?

What'll really burn you up is that if the DOJ takes over his defense and he's found guilty the American tax payer may be liable to pay for Trump's financial damages for a woman he (allegedly) raped.

It was bad enough that he was pushing off his legal defense bills and payoffs on the RNC and grifting off the MAGA mouthbreathers. Now he's moved on to trying to grift off of all of us.

[pete]

These new audio recordings of Trump in Feb and March, showing he knew precisely how deadly this virus was, are absolutely devastating. Woodward’s book “Rage” details his 18 recorded interviews with Trump, some of which show how Trump had been briefed in specifics, yet he chose complete dishonesty in communicating with the public.

Biden and Lincoln Project need to run this as a loop in Florida. This is him, in his own words, knowingly lying (bigly) to the public. No way to “fake news” this crap.

Biden needs to run an add comparing Trump's authoritarian tendencies to Castro and other dictators. The Trump campaign is making hay on Facebook disinformation targeting Cuban American and other Hispanic voters in Florida framing Biden as a socialist radical. Cool. Judo that into pointing out that, oh by the way, El Jefe Trump thinks it's ok to tear gas priests and beat the crap out of peaceful protesters while he's finishing up a fascist speech right before a creepy photo op. I know which of these two candidates is most like a scary third world dictator, and it ain't Biden, and their campaign shouldn't be afraid to say so.

[2min4cc]

The DOJ is moving to take over Trump's defense in a civil suit brought against him by a woman who accused him of rape.

How is that legal in the slightest?

I doubt it is legal - but when has that stopped him? It's just a delay tactic to get him past Nov 3. Same thing with his taxes. Is he going to be re-elected only for us to find out he committed bank and insurance fraud, and possibly rape? Really ticks me off that he continues to game the legal system.

[Donnie D]

So we have Trump’s own voice on tape admitting that he lied to the American public and that lie resulted in the needless deaths of more than 100,000 Americans. Just as Trump feels dead soldiers are suckers, he treated these individuals as pawns in his attempt to become the supreme ruler of the a United States.

However, there is a second guilty party - Bob Woodward. Had he released these tapes 4 months ago maybe some who died would have taken this more seriously. Maybe Republican Governors wouldn’t have parroted the liar in chief and would have done more to protect their citizens. But Woodward covered up Trump’s crime until now just to sell more books.

Make no mistake. These dead Americans who died for Trump and his re-election were murdered by Trump. He just had an accomplice.