News of the Day III

[pete]

So is Karen Bass actually known for anything positive? I just don't see the point of nominating someone that isn't a name whatsoever and only has weird controversial things tied to her.

I don't like Kamala Harris much at all but she's still a better pick.

She’s chair of the CBC and, to a person (and a lot like Joe), folks in Washington say she one of the nicest human beings you’ll ever meet. Jimmy Carter proved being nice isn’t nearly enough to survive in American politics, though.

[pete]

Come on, it’s cringey to try and sell her as qualified. She’d help the Democratic Party win in a landslide, no doubt, but it’s not responsible stewardship to vote for her. The candidate can’t just have her identity going for her and nothing else, not as VP. Line in the sand for me

The Vice President’s Constitutional roles begin and end with casting tie breaking votes in the Senate and being on standby in case the POTUS is incapacitated. That’s the extent of the formal job responsibilities, which is to say 99% of the time it’s just window dressing. Now, obviously recent VP’s like Gore, Cheney, and Biden have been delegated more expansive roles in governing, but it’s by definition more of a political job than a governing job.

And if you’re telling me, politically, Michelle Obama can unlock that last bit of political juice that ends the threat of fascist right wing authoritarianism from taking over America in my lifetime that has been ascendant since the aftermath of 9/11 and crescendoed to kids in cages, tear gassing priests to clear Lafayette Square for a creepy Bible photo op, and using militarized federal secret police to abduct peaceful protestors and spy on journalists in Portland, then I’ll overlook her light credentials and give her the benefit of the doubt she can learn on the job. Because, in case you all haven’t been paying attention to me the last six months, I’m dead serious about how terrifying the Republican Party’s devolution into an overtly anti-democratic and racist institution has been over the last 20 years is to me. We are damned lucky that Trump and Kushner and the rest of that gaggle are too stupid to pull off what they’ve been trying to pull off, because if they were just 10% more competent, they might’ve succeeded and I’d be in that cell at the concentration camp arguing with Zeyk right now.

[Flycoon]

If Biden were to pick Bass when you have Harris, Warren, and Rice on the table, then maybe he is a bit brain-addled after all.

Agreed. Any of the three would be fine with me and the other two could fill sec state, treasury, or AG.

Bass is too far left for the general.

[Flycoon]

Emory University political scientist:

https://twitter.com/AlanIAbramowitz/status/1289210769830223874?s=20

Obama won 52.9% to 45.7% in 2008 and got 365 electoral votes.

My back of the envelope, once you allocate undecideds, is the polling says Biden would win by about 54% to 44% if the election was held today, and would win nearly all the top tier swing states cleanly with North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, and Missouri (in that order) falling within the MOE (North Carolina leans to Biden, Texas a very slight lean to Biden, the Ohio, Iowa, and Georgia triumvirate pure coin flips with Biden ahead < 1%, and Missouri leaning to Trump). So, Biden sitting on 320 EV's with six states worth 103 EV's as toss ups.

Utah and Alaska are perilously close to sneaking into that MOE category, btw, and I was shocked Missouri's in there (although in 2008 McCain only won it by less than 4,000 votes). Caveat: that's based on limited polling in those three states.

Missouri is North Alabama.

[Flycoon]

Ugh Michelle Obama references again. Okay, what qualifies her for VP other than her last name?

I’m a huge BO fan and this is pure idiocy

It’s not idiocy. It’s about winning. Are you saying she is any less qualified than trump? Or pence? Or any member of trump’s cabinet?

[pete]

Missouri is North Alabama.

It’s like Pennsylvania. You’ve got the two urban centers on either side of the state (St. Louis and Kansas City) and you’ve basically got Kentucky in between. I can only go off the polling data that’s publicly available, and it says Trump would probably win Missouri by between 3.5% to 4% if undecideds allocate the way a lot of surveys have indicated they will nationally (2:1 to Biden). We could get a poll or two of Missouri tomorrow that drops it into the third tier and we could also find on Election Day that the polls in Missouri for 2020 are as bad as the 2018 polls (I’ve read if you don’t weight for education levels in Missouri and Arkansas you’re inviting a big error).

But, like I said, the numbers say it’s quietly on outside the fringe of competitiveness.

Hell, there was a story that Trump’s internal polls indicated Kansas next door might be flirting with being competitive, and it doesn’t have the big urban centers that Missouri has.

[Flycoon]

Come on, it’s cringey to try and sell her as qualified. She’d help the Democratic Party win in a landslide, no doubt, but it’s not responsible stewardship to vote for her. The candidate can’t just have her identity going for her and nothing else, not as VP. Line in the sand for me

This is the age of Trump. Just win. Worry about competence and stewardship later.

We will not recognize America in 4 years if Trump is re-elected. Hungary or Turkey will be the closest comparison.

[ChaseSpace]

If Biden wants his administration to be about righting the wrongs of the current administration and setting the country up for future success then my order would be:
Duckworth for VP(she's proven she will go on the attack instead of playing defense)

Harris for AG(let her be Top Cop again and chase down the corrupt that profited off of the illegal shit this administration did)

Warren for the Treasury(Joe has already adopted part of her tax plan, might as well let her run it and push through other reforms she has in mind)

[ChaseSpace]

Ugh Michelle Obama references again. Okay, what qualifies her for VP other than her last name?

I’m a huge BO fan and this is pure idiocy

Is it? I guarantee she's better qualified to be VP than Trump to be President, Kushner to have whatever his ever changing job title is, and whatever the fuck Ivanka is doing there.

No one would be expecting her to run for President after Joe's first or second term, they just need her to better rally the support around the Left because she is an icon of the Left at the moment and her being VP for 4-8 years is something I will gladly vote for if it meant dumping Trump and breaking the back of the Republican party for the foreseeable future.

[Donnie D]

If Biden wants his administration to be about righting the wrongs of the current administration and setting the country up for future success then my order would be:
Duckworth for VP(she's proven she will go on the attack instead of playing defense)

Harris for AG(let her be Top Cop again and chase down the corrupt that profited off of the illegal shit this administration did)

Warren for the Treasury(Joe has already adopted part of her tax plan, might as well let her run it and push through other reforms she has in mind)

I don’t mind Duckworth, but would prefer Whitmer.

You don’t need to take people out of the senate to fill cabinet jobs. Warren would be an awful choice because the Republican Governor would appoint a Republican to take her place in the senate.

[pete]

I don’t mind Duckworth, but would prefer Whitmer.

You don’t need to take people out of the senate to fill cabinet jobs. Warren would be an awful choice because the Republican Governor would appoint a Republican to take her place in the senate.

There’s ways to minimize that issue, and the loser of the Markey/Kennedy primary would probably be a sure bet in the special election.

If Warren moves over to the Executive, I’d make her Chief of Staff, though.

[RSchmitz]

You would vote for Trump if Michelle O was nominated as VP? GTFO.

Reading comprehension is hard I guess, I did not say that. Who I would want for VP has to be someone who has been in an administrative role in public office at some point in their life to be considered. I would still vote for the Biden ticket, at worst I wouldn’t vote at all. It’s all moot since that parlor trick isn’t on the table

[RSchmitz]

Not endorsing Michelle is not the same as not voting for the Biden ticket, the distinction should go without explanation. We don't need Michelle on the ticket to win the presidency, those who want her on the ticket want to win in a landslide to sweep up all of the legislative seats. I get it, but I think that's putting party above country, that's not a deal I want to make.

The Vice President’s Constitutional roles begin and end with casting tie breaking votes in the Senate and being on standby in case the POTUS is incapacitated. That’s the extent of the formal job responsibilities, which is to say 99% of the time it’s just window dressing. Now, obviously recent VP’s like Gore, Cheney, and Biden have been delegated more expansive roles in governing, but it’s by definition more of a political job than a governing job.

And if you’re telling me, politically, Michelle Obama can unlock that last bit of political juice that ends the threat of fascist right wing authoritarianism from taking over America in my lifetime that has been ascendant since the aftermath of 9/11 and crescendoed to kids in cages, tear gassing priests to clear Lafayette Square for a creepy Bible photo op, and using militarized federal secret police to abduct peaceful protestors and spy on journalists in Portland, then I’ll overlook her light credentials and give her the benefit of the doubt she can learn on the job. Because, in case you all haven’t been paying attention to me the last six months, I’m dead serious about how terrifying the Republican Party’s devolution into an overtly anti-democratic and racist institution has been over the last 20 years is to me. We are damned lucky that Trump and Kushner and the rest of that gaggle are too stupid to pull off what they’ve been trying to pull off, because if they were just 10% more competent, they might’ve succeeded and I’d be in that cell at the concentration camp arguing with Zeyk right now.

Pete a few posts ago you were just talking about how you were worried about Biden making it into a second term because he was pushing 80. The VP is window dressing, but that's because they need their plate clean in the event of an emergency.

[pete]

Pete a few posts ago you were just talking about how you were worried about Biden making it into a second term because he was pushing 80. The VP is window dressing, but that's because they need their plate clean in the event of an emergency.

It's a fair concern. For me, it's one that's mitigated by the fact that: 1.) I think the experience you get as an active/engaged FLOTUS is wildly underrated, and for instance, Woodrow Wilson and Ronald Reagan's wives essentially ran the Executive Branch along with their staffs in the waning years of their presidencies, 2.) My appraisal of Michelle is that she's more than up to the challenge intellectually of learning on the job, 3.) If she gets in trouble, there's worse positions to be in than to be able to turn to Barack and say, "What would you do?" (See #1), 4.) It's unlikely Biden's going to go full William Harrison and croak 31 days into his presidency.

So the risk is not that high to me given the reward.

[Hoek]

I don't like it mostly because it's a bad precedent to pander that nakedly (and the last thing we need is to continue to turn politics into a celebrity contest IMO), and it could backfire if she goofs in a debate or something. I do think she'd be capable of being a competent VP with some learning on the job.