News of the Day III

[pete]

I mean that's well within the margin of error, hardly a shock. Also for all the hype about how polls got Trump's win wrong, 538 still gave him like a 30% chance of winning which was quite significant. The shy Trump voter seems overblown as a result. Hillary's lead wasn't that huge down the stretch, some of the more amateurish predictions out there not withstanding.

The upper Midwest states, particularly Wisconsin and Michigan, were also very sparsely polled in 2016 and you didn’t have a lot of high quality live interview polls of the ones that were conducted. The swing states are getting polled a lot more this time around and with higher quality methodology polls.

[Flycoon]

shy Trump voters .

Good indicator of closet racists, homophobes and xenophobes. Cowards.

[dannybolt]

Trump ... did an advertisement for Goya foods from the Oval Office

Hold up, I thought picking winners and losers was an anathema to Republicans. I thought the market was supposed to sort the winners and losers. If Goya is doing something their customers don't like, then Goya should change what they are doing or they will likely suffer the consequences of their actions, as demand for their products drop. That is the whole fucking point of Laissez Faire economics. Or are we not doing that anymore (that's a rhetorical question BTW)?

One more instance of Republicans abandoning their "principles". Dudes are gonna be so fucked anytime they bring up anything under the next Democratic administration, because the answer will just be "Trump did what you are now decrying". None of the above is a good thing BTW.

[Donnie D]

As schools get ready to open, you can use this handy map to see the risk a person having COVID based upon your location and the size of the event. It is interactive, so you can change some variables. If you place it to 500, you will see the likelihood that a person in a school has COVID-19.

A note of caution, it was developed by Georgia Tech, so factor that in your assessment of its accuracy.

https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/?fbclid=IwAR2JUFC_Rzp3mgbT8BZYYtcf_i4_cSQ

[pete]

A note of caution, it was developed by Georgia Tech, so factor that in your assessment of its accuracy.

[pete]

To alleviate some of Donnie's hand wringing about Trump's fundraising advantage:

Biden campaign now has more cash on hand than the Trump team.

https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1283792693160742913?s=20

Biden has $242M in COH now, according to the campaign, and they just went on the air with ads in three Texas markets:

The Biden campaign has placed their first TV ad spending in TEXAS since the primary. Cable buy in Dallas-Ft. Worth and Houston markets; 7/15-7/19 flight

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1283166738641760261?s=20

Biden/DNC have added TV ad spending in Texas. Going up on broadcast for the first time there

So far we’ve tracked spending in the El Paso (Las Cruces) DMA

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1283795621816733697?s=20

Basically Biden just got to money parody and holds a 9.1% advantage nationally on 538. So, whatever advantage money gives you, Trump's pissed a lot of that advantage away.

[pete]

And this is part of the reason why: Trump is laundering campaign donations through his campaign and giving that money to himself:

New
@FEC
filing: Trump Victory paid ~$400,000 to Trump Hotel in Q2 alone—steering over $3 MILLION in donations from presidential campaign donors to Trump family, properties & businesses with his 2020 re-election campaign & Trump MAGA joint fundraising cmte—$17.4M+ counting 2016

https://twitter.com/annalecta/status/1283604353497079808?s=20

This is just what the campaign's doing. Imagine how they're siphoning money from Executive Branch agency spending into his businesses.

[pete]

Rep.
@BrianFitzUSA
is out with a new internal poll (July 11-14; 400 RVs; +/-4.9%) that showed him leading
@FinelloForPA
53%-39% in #PA01.

The poll also found Biden leading Trump 51%-42% in the district.

This is actually a Republican internal poll with a really good top line result for the incumbent Rep. This district is the north Philly suburbs. Clinton won this district by 2% (as a district, it landed very close to the 2016 national results, actually, in the popular vote).

So a Republican internal poll has Biden running 7 points ahead of Clinton in this suburban district, and kind of validates that Biden probably has about a 9% lead nationally at the moment, on a day where 538 shows a 9.1% national polling advantage.

And the suburbs of America continue in open revolt against Don Trump.

[Donnie D]

West missed the deadline to get on the Florida ballot, but will be on the ballot in Oklahoma.

[jdhebner]

To alleviate some of Donnie's hand wringing about Trump's fundraising advantage:

https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1283792693160742913?s=20

Biden has $242M in COH now, according to the campaign, and they just went on the air with ads in three Texas markets:

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1283166738641760261?s=20

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1283795621816733697?s=20

Basically Biden just got to money parody and holds a 9.1% advantage nationally on 538. So, whatever advantage money gives you, Trump's pissed a lot of that advantage away.

Bolding mine. Joke intended?

[pete]

Bolding mine. Joke intended?

Auto correct can be a cruel mistress.

[Donnie D]

It’s amazing that Trump has squandered a huge fund raising advantage (ok its Trump, it’s not that surprising).

[pete]

It’s amazing that Trump has squandered a huge fund raising advantage (ok its Trump, it’s not that surprising).

What will be more amazing is that if Trump decides he can’t win (fair and square at least) I predict he’ll start quickly embezzling as much money as he can from his campaign into his own pockets and legal defense funds.

[Donnie D]

Publix and Target will require masks next week.

Cue the, but we’re Mericans we have the freedom to infect you.

[Donnie D]

Kayleigh McEnany - July 16, 2020 - "The science should not stand in the way of reopening schools."