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  • Fantasy Bolts

    I'm a hockey poolie. Been doing it for almost 10 years now. So I'm really curious to hear anyone's opinions on what we can expect for the Lightning's top point-producers this season. I'll start ...

    Stamkos ... 80-100 points
    St. Louis ... 80-100
    Lecavalier ... 75-100
    Gagne ... 60-80
    Downie ... 40-60
    Malone ... 45-55
    Moore ... 30-40
    Bergenheim ... 20-35

    Kubina ... 35-45
    Hedman ... 30-40
    Jones ... 20-30
    Ohlund ... 15-25
    Clark ... 15-25
    Lundin ... 15-25

    Some of these projections are based on my knowledge of players and their histories. But I haven't really had the chance to follow the team this preseason, so I could use some insight from any of you who have. How is the system coming along? Some fantasy publications are hyping Guy Boucher as an offensive innovator who could have a significant impact on the entire team's stats. Also, I really don't know how the lines or pairings are stacking up, and obviously that could have a huge impact. Downie and Malone, for instance, could be similar in production but their lines are important factors, especially if one of them could even possibly spend some time on the third line. And speaking of the third line, it would really help to know how Moore, Bergenheim and Purcell have looked. From what I've seen of Moore in the last couple of years and especially in last year's playoffs, he is poised to have a very good season as a third-line center, but his numbers could really depend upon the talent of his linemates. Bergenheim is very capable of finally having a breakthrough season, but I believe he's been slightly injured so far. And Purcell is still a bit of a mystery, as I only really saw him last year with the Bolts and he looked like a classic tweener -- not productive enough for a scoring line and not physical or defensive enough for a lower line (and also not productive enough without a more talented playmaking linemate). So he's not really an option, as the risk outweighs the reward (unless I'm unaware that he's getting a shot on a scoring line).

    The defense has some promising fantasy talent, as Kubina is still in his prime, Hedman is looks like a star in the making (and could breakthrough at any time) and the depth signings of Randy Jones and Brett Clark are perfect veteran fits with Ohlund. But I'm REALLY most curious about how Boucher's system will impact the blueliners. Will their numbers all spike a bit as we saw with John Tortorella's system (back when it was new and innovative)? How are they all adapting? And what are the pairings looking like? Lundin is a tough one to project because he's not a natural scorer, but he's got scoring potential. So his defense partner would likely have a big say in Lundin's offensive production. Put him with Kubina or Jones and I'd say Lundin could flirt with 25 points. Put him with Ohlund and ask them to be a shutdown pair and I'd stick with 15 points.

    Finally, the goaltending is of no interest to fantasy/pool players. The only scenario would be if Dan Ellis took the No. 1 job, kept it and started at least 50 games. But I feel reasonably certain this will be a 1a/1b platoon and neither backstop is that much better than the other.

    Your thoughts, please.
    “Could I had posted cite a site?” — WWW dot Trump makes you dumb dot RU

  • #2
    Since, I am not a Randy Jones fan, I would expect his point projection to be lower. I don't expect hin to be a top 6 for very long. His defensive lapses will get to a point where he will be replaced. Given our lack of depth at the blueline, there is a possiblity he could meet those projections, but our goaltending stats would suffer.


    • #3
      I dunno. I made some use of Ellis last year, but that's because I had two other good goalies already.


      • #4
        If Gagne manages to stay healthy that should be at least another 10 points. Its surprising how many points you give Jones, but he is my dark horse to do well this season so I agree with it, he reminds me very much of Paul Ranger offensively. I think you have Ohlund pegged too low, he is going to be on the second PP unit and I think he will have 25 points minimum this season. As for Purcell, Boucher has been very pleased with him and he is slotted to get time on the PP as well. He has played exceedingly well so far, I have high expectations for him.

        I wouldn't be surprised to see Malone and Downie being rotated out in favor of Moore/Purcell/Bergenheim depending on the situation. There truly are three scoring lines on this team now and I imagine they'll all be used differently depending on the circumstances. One more thing to note, expect a lot more ice time from the third line this season.
        If no government system will guarantee a utopia, then our best choice is to look for the least exploitive one


        • #5
          Interesting. I really had no idea about those third liners. Randy Jones is not known to most hockey fans, but I had him on my team last year as a very late pick and he did great things with Los Angeles. Check out his average points per game -- .44

          His only trouble with the Kings was an inability to stay healthy, but make no mistake, Jones has the skill and instincts to put up surprising numbers. He's a guy who already has a 30-point season under his belt (Philly in 07-08). He's just never played more than 71 games in a season.
          “Could I had posted cite a site?” — WWW dot Trump makes you dumb dot RU


          • #6
            Wow, I got Stamkos AND Hedman! I'm psyched.
            “Could I had posted cite a site?” — WWW dot Trump makes you dumb dot RU


            • #7
              Just had our draft tonight. 6 team league, head to head weekly matchups. Here's my roster:
              C Nicklas Backstrom WSH
              C Henrik Zetterberg DET
              C Mikko Koivu MIN
              C, LW Bobby Ryan ANA
              LW, RW Ilya Kovalchuk NJ
              LW Mike Cammalleri MON
              LW Thomas Vanek BUF
              RW Patick Kane CHI
              RW Marian Hossa CHI
              RW Steve Downie TB
              D Sergei Gonchar OTT
              D Brian Rafalski DET
              D Alex Goligoski PITT
              D Pavel Kubina TB
              D P.K. Subban MON
              G Martin Brodeur NJ
              G Jimmy Howard DET

              My team is solid. I think I have a decent mix of goals, assists, +/-, PIMS, power play points, short handed points and goaltending stats. I should be solid this season. Since it's only a 6 team league, there are plenty of good players still available if I have any injuries or guys don't step up. Go Bolts!