Lightning 2021 Offseason

[RSchmitz]

Gourde has an NTC until next offseason.

I think the discussion is about which of those two to expose to Seattle if we protect 4 D. I think

[Derek28]

I don't think this will happen, but it does work under the cap.

Stamkos (8,500,000) - Point (6,750,000) - Kucherov (9,500,000)
Coleman (4,500,000) - Gourde (5,166,166) - Goodrow (2,500,000)
Colton (850,000) - Cirelli (4,800,000) - Joseph (737,500)
Katchouk (750,000) - ABB (750,000) - Maroon (900,000)

Hedman (7,875,000) - Rutta (1,300,000)
McDonagh (6,750,000) - Cernak (2,950,000)
Sergachev 4,800,000) - Foote (800,000)
7th (800,000)

Vasy (9,500,000)
Backup (900,000)

Total: 81,379,166

[the_narrow_way]

I don't think it's close...37 controls WAY more loose pucks in the O zone. Gourde gets my vote. (now watch, some fancy stats are going to say I'm wrong..)

I don't know about fancy stats but I do know that Gourde is hair-on-fire busy from the moment he gets off the bench. I saw him take pucks away from guys on the boards that he had no right to get. I saw him go toe-to-toe with every body who gave him shit and skate away smiling. I don't want to lose Cirelli either but I think Gourde is a bigger force of change on the ice and that's a skill that's hard to teach.

[pete]

They need to keep both Gourde and Cirelli. Centers > Wingers unless the winger is a generational talent like Kucherov.

[dannybolt]

It's so hard to pick on any one player beyond TJ, because Cirelli, Gourde, Palat, Killorn, McD, etc have all either had monster playoffs, or monster regular seasons in the last two years. There isn't anyone guy you can point at and say, yeah, we can afford to lose that guy. And the sad truth is it's going to be at least one, probably two.

McD has looked pretty bad for stretches in the regular season, but anyone here honestly think he doesn't have quite a bit left in the tank after these playoffs? McD was a beast.
Cirelli had stretches in the playoffs this year where he was great, he had a monster regular season two seasons ago, but maybe his playoffs haven't been quite as successful as that season two years ago.
Two years ago Gourde had a rough regular season, but he was a monster once he got Coleman and Goodrow on his wings in both regular season and playoffs. Will that continue without Coleman and possibly Goodrow?
Two years ago Palat had a great regular season and monster playoffs, and had a great regular season this year; his playoff points fell off once he got bounced off of PP1 when Kuch got healthy, but still had a good playoffs on the balance.
For all the shit we have been giving Killorn for years, his regular season now matches his playoff performance, which is great, but doesn't make any decision much better. It was noticeable how the PP struggled once he broke his leg and wasn't setting screens and tips in front of the net.

And then there are the long-term considerations, the ability to re-sign guys, NTCs, etc also to weigh.

There's no easy answers and losing any of the guys off this team are going to hurt, no matter whom. A lot.

[pete]

I don't think it's all that hard, tbh. You move out the Norfolk kids. They're the oldest and have the least amount of tread left on their tires. They have the biggest contracts. Killorn, Palat, and Johnson may all be gone by the end of this offseason, depending on whether or not JBB deems he needs to make larger tweaks to other parts of the roster.

Playing around on Cap Friendly, if you give Seattle Foote and a pick to take Johnson and dump Palat for draft picks, you can have something along the following lines:

Stamkos/Point/Kucherov
Killorn/Cirelli/Joseph
Goodrow/Gourde/Colton
Katchouk/Stephens/Maroon
ABB

Hedman/Rutta
McDonagh/Cernak
Sergachev/Hakanpaa
Thomas

Vasilevskiy
Reimer

Re-signed: Goodrow, Colton (RFA), Katchouk (RFA), ABB (RFA), Thomas
Signed: Hakanpaa, Reimer

I may have underpaid a bit, especially for Reimer and it might be another goaltender they need to sign as a backup, but I think that's do-able and the team is in shape to challenge for another Cup if Hedman is full strength by next playoffs.

[Hoek]

They need to keep both Gourde and Cirelli. Centers > Wingers unless the winger is a generational talent like Kucherov.

It's definitely a big part of the formula. The flexibility of having so many good centers is massive.

[dannybolt]

I don't think it's all that hard, tbh. You move out the Norfolk kids. They're the oldest and have the least amount of tread left on their tires. They have the biggest contracts.

Killorn, Palat, and Johnson may all be gone by the end of this offseason, depending on whether or not JBB deems he needs to make larger tweaks to other parts of the roster.

They are also the most reliable production-wise. Cirelli definitely took a step back this season, and it is quite a stretch to think that Joseph, Colton and another Syracuse guy are going to be close to replicating Palat/Killorn, Coleman and Johnson's production. You are going to see a significant decrease there. Maybe that's inevitable, and by keeping McD you shift the balance even more towards a shut down, defense first, gritty type of identity.

Playing around on Cap Friendly, if you give Seattle Foote and a pick to take Johnson and dump Palat for draft picks, you can have something along the following lines:

Stamkos/Point/Kucherov
Killorn/Cirelli/Joseph
Goodrow/Gourde/Colton
Katchouk/Stephens/Maroon
ABB

Hedman/Rutta
McDonagh/Cernak
Sergachev/Hakanpaa
Thomas

Vasilevskiy
Reimer

Re-signed: Goodrow, Colton (RFA), Katchouk (RFA), ABB (RFA), Thomas
Signed: Hakanpaa, Reimer

I may have underpaid a bit, especially for Reimer and it might be another goaltender they need to sign as a backup, but I think that's do-able and the team is in shape to challenge for another Cup if Hedman is full strength by next playoffs.

Yeah, I see where you are going, although I'd far prefer keeping Palat over Killorn, which won't surprise anyone.
I'm not as high on Joseph as you are (even admitting that him being another Dana Tyrell was unfair to Math), and I think a 2nd line slot is at least one line too high at this point, his hot streaks need to last longer and he needs to be better over 200 feet.

I have to think we will have at least one Cup chasing vet on a minimal deal, maybe in that 3RHD spot, or maybe 2nd line wing. Maybe both.

[dmaxf9]

Certainly feel Foote is in play. Cirelli just turns 24 in 5 days. Colton is about one year older than Cirelli. You can’t teach compete and he and Gourde have it!
With new TV contract cap expected to go up to up about $100M in 3 years. Those contracts with Vasilevskiy and Kucherov were steals.
Love Palat but he has only one year left on his contract and he is really only a 5 on 5 winger. Suspect Francis would love to have some Stanley Cup winners on his team and he needs NHLers.

Killorn-Point-Kucherov
Stamkos-Cirelli-Colton
Goodrow-Gourde-Coleman
Maroon-Stephens-Joseph
Raddysh-ABB-Katchouk

Rutta-Hedman
Cernak-McDonagh
Savard-Sergachev
Schenn-Thomas

Vasilevskiy
Lundqvist

[RSchmitz]

They need to keep both Gourde and Cirelli. Centers > Wingers unless the winger is a generational talent like Kucherov.

One of them has to be exposed if we are protecting 4D though. Even if we attempt to make a trade with Seattle, the list is due next week and one of them will have to be on it.

[Derek28]

I'm not convinced Seattle would take McDonagh if we exposed him. A 32 year old defenseman with 5 years left on his contract at almost $7 million a year and a full NTC for most of it doesn't offer much flexibility.

[RSchmitz]

I'm not convinced Seattle would take McDonagh if we exposed him. A 32 year old defenseman with 5 years left on his contract at almost $7 million a year and a full NTC for most of it doesn't offer much flexibility.

They want to compete from the start, Francis has been given the greenlight to spend to the cap ceiling. I think he'd definitely be selected, gives their blueline instant credibility and probably becomes the teams first captain.

I think it would be a huge blow for us to lose him as a defender. Our defense goes from being a top 5 defense to middle of the pack. It would kill us

[pete]

If you make a deal with Seattle to take Johnson, Palat, or Killorn, you don't have to worry about them taking someone you don't want them to take.

[RSchmitz]

If you make a deal with Seattle to take Johnson, Palat, or Killorn, you don't have to worry about them taking someone you don't want them to take.

That is what we are all hoping for.

[Donnie D]

My wife heard on radio (always accurate), that Seattle offered to take TJ if the Lightning threw in Cernak and a pick.
I'm sure the click on the phone from JBB was about the time it takes for the driver behind you to honk his horn when the light turns green in New York.